Friday, January 31, 2014

Friday roundup (01-31-14)

Reinhart and Rogoff: Great Recession may "surpass in severity" the Great Depression in many Countries (Calculated Risk blog) RECOVERY FROM FINANCIAL CRISES: EVIDENCE FROM 100 EPISODES by Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (National Bureau of Economic Research)

Inflation in Euro Zone Falls, and a 12% Jobless Rate Doesn’t Budge (The New York Times) Fall in eurozone inflation rate fuels deflation concerns (The BBC)

Euro zone inflation drop in January gives ECB fresh headache (Reuters) Eurozone inflation drop fuels talk of rate cut (The Associated Press)

European banks face stress tests: Barclays, HSBC, RBS, Lloyds and 120 others face EBA tests to end lingering doubts about strength of system (The Guardian)

Chart of the Day: Too big to fail has not gone away -- "Several major European banks [UBS, Credit Suisse, ING, Rabobank, Santander, and HSBC] were found to hold assets that dwarfed the gross domestic product of their country." (CNBC)

Is Europe Heading For The Largest Debt Default In History? (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Italy is wasting away month by month by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph blogs)

Italy's anti-establishment party bids to impeach president (CNBC)

Jamie Dimon's Raise Proves U.S. Regulatory Strategy is a Joke (Rolling Stone blogs)

House Republicans might propose canceling ‘Obamacare bailouts’ to raise debt limit (The Washington Post blogs) House Republicans eye repeal of ObamaCare ‘bailout’ in debt-limit bill (The Hill blogs)

Amazon's Bad Omen for the U.S. Economy (Bloomberg)

Severe California Drought Draining Finances: Now that California's Water Board is turning off the tap to certain distributors, and reservoirs are running dry, the cost of water is slated to rise and the impact on the state's harvest could be devastating to many farmers. (NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams)

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


US regulators close small lender in Idaho (The Associated Press) Syringa Bank of Boise ID had a troubled assets ratio of 71.2%. (BankTracker)

Handler’s Leucadia to Cut 1,300 California Jobs at Beef Unit (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, January 30, 2014

Thursday roundup (01-30-14)

Banks Could Still Face Tougher Capital Requirements to Prevent Crises (The New York Times blogs)

The euro zone’s business lending nightmare is far from over (Quartz)

German Inflation Below Expectations Signals Deflation Risk Stays (Bloomberg)

The Chinese Shadow Banking System Just Dodged A Bullet (The Business Insider) Shadow banking: China's wobbly house of cards: The prospect of the first major default connected with the Chinese shadow banking system sent shock waves through the financial markets of emerging economies. Expect more close calls to come. (Fortune)

California May Have Hit Its Driest Point In 500 Years And The Effects Are Frightening (The Huffington Post) Fears of California’s ‘mega-drought’ grow (PorkNetwork) Hundred Years of Dry: How California’s Drought Could Get Much, Much Worse: Scientists fear California's long-ago era of mega-droughts could be back (Time)

Parched from Drought, California's Reservoirs Nearly Empty: During what is normally the wettest month in California, there's little to no rain. The water shortage is particularly worrisome to farmers who are losing their crops to the arid land. (NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams)

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


California Farms Going Thirsty: Andy Domenigoni, a fourth generation vegetable farmer in Riverside California, is feeling the pain from the state's drought. It has been so dry there for so long that officials have declared what's called an "exceptional drought." (NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy


Oilfield services provider Weatherford to cut 7,000 jobs (Reuters)

Best Buy's Canadian arm to cut 950 jobs (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-30-14)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"In the seven days ended Jan. 25, initial jobless claims jumped by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

Jobless claims post surprise jump as fourth quarter growth falls short (Reuters)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, January 29, 2014

Wednesday roundup (01-29-14)

World risks deflationary shock as BRICS puncture credit bubbles: As matters stand, the next recession will push the Western economic system over the edge into deflation by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard -- ["Half the world economy is one accident away from a deflation trap."] (The Telegraph) Capital flows and risks in developing countries (The World Bank)

Slump in euro zone money supply growth highlights deflation risk (Reuters) Euro zone money supply dries up, adding pressure for Draghi (CNBC)

A Risk Plan for Europe’s Banks, Going Nowhere Fast (The New York Times) E.U. Bank Proposal Arrives, but Late to the Party (The New York Times blogs) EU’s Too-Big-to-Fail Plan Seen Too Late to Win Approval (Bloomberg)

Obama Rejects the Politics of Austerity: For the first time since 2011, the president [on the occasion of his State of the Union address] seemed freed from an emphasis on the deficit and debt reduction to focus on his own agenda for expanding the economy. (The Atlantic)

Here are 7 policies Obama just said he’d pursue without Congress (The Washington Post blogs) Obama to Congress: Let’s See Less of Each Other (The Fiscal Times)

Why low inflation hurts the 99%: Instead of just looking at inflation, the Fed should consider the gap between income and inflation. And the gap is wide. (Fortune)

U.S. banking regulator, fearing loan bubble, warns funds (Reuters)

“All You Need for a Financial Crisis . . . (Baseline Scenario blog)

South Africa's Sun International to cut 1,700 jobs (Reuters)

[Finnish manufacturer] Wartsila to cut [1,000] jobs and vows to stay independent (Reuters)

EMC Will Cut [about 1,000] Jobs as Quarterly Forecast Trails Estimates (Bloomberg)

Sears Canada to cut 624 jobs (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, January 28, 2014

Tuesday roundup (01-28-14)

Rising risk that German court will block Bundesbank rescue for Southern Europe: Court can force German institutions to withdraw support for EU operations, wrecking market credibility for the ECB's rescue policies by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Ukraine PM resigns amid unrest, parliament revokes anti-protest laws (Reuters) Even if Ukraine averts political meltdown, economic obstacles remain: Ukraine's political struggle conceals deep-seated economic fault lines. Whichever side emerges victorious from the crisis – and inherits the mess – is not to be envied. (The Christian Science Monitor)

U.K. Debt Anxiety Builds as Carney Weighs Rate Path (Bloomberg)

Barclays considering closure of a quarter of its high street branches: New boss Antony Jenkins thought to be eyeing 40,000 job cuts and 400 branch closures in coming years (The Guardian)

Lloyds Cuts 1,080 Jobs As Barclays Slaps Travel Ban On Staff (The Huffington Post)

Emerging markets forced to tighten by US and Chinese monetary superpowers: The global chain reaction resembles what happened in the East Asia crisis in 1997-1998 when domino effects swept the region by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

China's $500 million shadow bank rescue (CNNMoney) Xinhua Insight: China dodges major shadow banking default (Xinhua)

Debt-laden Canadians becoming more ‘fragile’ to economic shocks, warns TD CEO Ed Clark (The Financial Post)

Obama to Put Economic Divide at Heart of State of the Union Speech [to be given this evening] (The New York Times) Obama vows to act on economy 'without legislation,' says recovery leaving many behind (FoxNews)

Want to Reduce Income/Wealth Inequality? Abolish the Engine of Inequality, the Federal Reserve by Charles Hugh Smith (Of Two Minds blog)

Yellen Faces Test Bernanke Failed: Ease Bubbles (Bloomberg)

Roach on US recovery: 'Keep the champagne on ice' (CNBC) America’s False Dawn (Project Syndicate)

Budget Watchdog: Debt Burden In Michigan Now $25,300 Per Taxpayer: State has among the highest debt per-person in the nation (Michigan Capitol Confidential)

Yahoo's 4th quarter revenue slides as ad prices dip again (Reuters) Yahoo shares sink as sales and profit continue to slide (CNNMoney) Yahoo's Ad Slump Rages On, And CEO Marissa Mayer Still Can't Say Exactly When It Will End (Forbes)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, January 27, 2014

Monday roundup (01-27-14)

Study Puts Price Tag on ‘Too Big to Fail’ (The New York Times blogs)

No, There Is No Stoppage Of Cash Transfers In China [refuting the report posted here yesterday] (ZeroHedge blog) Is China really running out of cash? (CNBC)

China details $3-trillion local public debt risk (Reuters)

China’s debt-fuelled boom is in danger of turning to bust: The longer a credit hot streak lasts, the more likely it is to end abruptly, says Ruchir Sharma (The Financial Times) Why you should care that China's economy is slowing [Jan. 9] (Yahoo!'s The Daily Ticker)



[New US Federal Reserve Chair] Yellen to Confront Danger of Too-Low Inflation While Tapering QE (Bloomberg)

State of the Union: Economy - for many, a slow recovery (CNN blogs)

The new face of food stamps: working-age Americans: As US wages stagnate, food stamp use growing fastest among workers with some college training (The Associated Press)

Should the Federal Reserve Stop the Dominoes From Falling? by Charles Hugh Smith (Of Two Minds blog)

Chemical maker Ashland to cut up to 1000 jobs (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Sunday roundup (01-26-14)

ECB poised for battle to ward off deflation (The Financial Times)

Venice Prices Sink in Italian-Style Deflation: Euro Credit (Bloomberg)

China Halts Bank Cash Transfers (Forbes)

White House, McConnell dig in on debt ceiling fight (Marketwatch blogs) McConnell sets up fight over debt limit (The Hill blogs)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday roundup (01-25-14)

Lagarde warns of risks to global economic recovery (The Associated Press)

Davos 2014: Eurozone inflation 'way below target' (The BBC)

European banks have 84 billion euro capital shortfall, OECD estimates: report (Reuters)

France could destroy the euro, says Christopher Pissarides: Nobel laureate believes the ability of France to reform will decide the eurozone's fate (The Telegraph)

[Britain's] HSBC imposes restrictions on large [= from £5,000 to £10,000] cash withdrawals [because the depositors, whose money it was, "could not provide evidence of why they wanted it"] (The BBC)

The FT Goes There: "Demand Physical Gold" As One Day Paper Price Manipulation Will End "Catastrophically" (ZeroHedge blog)

China's shadow-banking sector a growing problem for booming economy facing inevitable slowdown (The Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

[In the US] Holder says no bank 'too big to indict,' more financial cases coming: The attorney general says the Justice Department will be bringing more cases involving Wall Street misconduct. (The Los Angeles Times)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 600 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

The Bank of Union, El Reno, OK, Becomes Second Bank Failure of 2014 [as posted here yesterday] (Problem Bank List)

Rabobank Groep May Cut Up to 2,000 Jobs at Dutch Operations (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Friday roundup (01-24-14)

Kiev Truce Falls Apart, and Unrest Resurges (The New York Times) Ukraine risks 'civil war': EU justice chief (CNBC) A new and dark chapter (The Economist blogs) Gorbachev asks Putin, Obama to save Ukraine from civil war (The Hindu)

Italy moves to sell stake in post office to cut public debt (Reuters)

Crime Doesn't Pay? JPMorgan Chase Begs to Differ (The Huffington Post) Jamie Dimon Needed a Raise to Make Up for the Rough Year He's Had (Bloomberg) JPMorgan gives CEO Jamie Dimon 74 percent raise despite bank’s legal troubles (The Washington Post)

Banks Remain Vulnerable in a Key Area Years After the Crisis (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Regulators shutter bank in Oklahoma (The Associated Press) The Bank of Union of El Reno OK had a troubled assets ratio of 329.8%. (BankTracker)

Wal-Mart laying off 2,300 Sam's Club managers and hourly workers (The Los Angeles Times)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

Thursday roundup (01-23-14)

Davos 2014: global economy not safe until 2020, says Barclays chief Antony Jenkins: Barclays chief Antony Jenkins says that despite increased regulation across the banking system, there was still much work to be done (The Telegraph)

Derivatives get damning verdict at Davos (CNBC) At Davos, Debate on Whether Banks Have Learned Their Lessons (The New York Times blogs)

Roubini doom scenario: It looks like 1914 again (CNBC) Abe sees World War One echoes in Japan-China tensions (Reuters)

Japan's recovery at risk of stalling on 'premature' tax rise fears Nobel economist Stiglitz: Nobel laureate warns that Japan's premier is pursuing a "risky strategy" by raising the consumption tax from 5pc to 8pc in April by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

China injects fresh cash into banks (The BBC)

Obama Recovery Fails to Resonate as Americans Left Behind (Bloomberg)

Cold Gripping U.S. Preview of Worse Weather Coming Next Week (Bloomberg)

Calif. calls for water conservation in response to record drought: A dry spell that has been building for three years has become a full-on emergency in California. Gov. Jerry Brown called it the worst drought on record and has asked everyone across the state to conserve water. Jeffrey Brown reports on the threats posed by the dry conditions. (PBSNewsHour)



Kelly McParland: I don’t worry about Edward Snowden. It’s Google that scares me (National Post)

Lada-maker AvtoVAZ to cut 7,500 jobs as Russian car market slows (Automotive News)

1,500 UK forces personnel to go in latest military cuts (The BBC)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-23-14)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"In the seven days ended Jan. 18, initial jobless claims edged up by 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Wednesday roundup (01-22-14)

OECD chief economist sees deflation risk in Europe (Reuters)

Stress tests could reignite debt crisis, Davos hears: UBS chairman Axel Weber says despite government pressure some bank won’t pass (The Irish Times) Crippled eurozone to face fresh debt crisis this year, warns ex-ECB strongman Axel Weber: Ex-Bundesbank head Axel Weber expects fresh market attacks on eurozone this year and economist Kenneth Rogoff says the euro was a "giant historic mistake" by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Crisis: Greek public debt at 171.8% GDP, says Eurostat -- ["followed by Italy (132.9% GDP), Portugal (128.7%) and Ireland (124.8%)"] (ANSAMed)

Spain’s public debt above euro-zone average for first time ever (El Pais in English)

City bankers warn against UK’s potential loss of influence in EU [The Financial Times via] (CNBC)

The $23 Trillion Credit Bubble In China Is Starting To Collapse – What Next? (ZeroHedge blog) Trying to deleverage China without blowing up the system by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

U.S. to Hit Debt Limit in Late February: Next standoff over federal debt ceiling will come earlier than expected (Time)

Michigan governor offers $350 million for Detroit pensions (CNNMoney) Governor backs plan to give bankrupt Detroit $350M (The Associated Press)

A 'tsunami' of store closings expected to hit retail (CNBC)

Target to cut 1,175 jobs, including 475 layoffs (United Press International)

Novartis to cut 500 jobs in shutting U.S. Diovan plant (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Tuesday roundup (01-21-14)

IMF warns of deflation risk (CNNMoney)

Study: Pension savings 'barely dent' Illinois fiscal woes (WBEZ)

Bombardier cuts 1,700 jobs to save cash after jet delays (Reuters)

Texas Instruments to cut 1,100 jobs worldwide (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Monday roundup (01-20-14)

ILO warns young hit hardest as global unemployment continues to rise: International Labour Organisation says firms are increasing payouts to shareholders rather than investing in new workers (The Guardian) Global Economy Risks Jobless Recovery -- ["By any measure, this is a dispiriting account of the global labor market."] (The Voice of America) ILO says global employment situation still a nightmare: Some five years after the start of the global financial crisis, unemployment is still rising in absolute figures, the International Labor Organization (ILO) has found. Harsh austerity measures are part of the problem. (Deutsche Welle) Weak global economy strangling job employment creation, UN reports (UN News Centre)

World's richest 85 people have as much as half of globe’s population, Oxfam reports (McClatchy Foreign Staff) WORKING FOR THE FEW: Political capture and economic inequality (Oxfam)

Deutsche Loss Underlines European Economy’s Dependence on Banks (The New York Times)

In U.S., 67% Dissatisfied With Income, Wealth Distribution: Democrats and independents are more dissatisfied than Republicans (Gallup Economy)

Energy giant RWE to slash 6,700 jobs by 2016: Germany's second biggest power supplier said on Thursday it plans to axe a further 6,700 jobs by 2016. RWE said it anticipated a steep drop in profitability. (Agence France Presse)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Sunday roundup (01-19-14)

At Davos: Paul Singer To Warn Of Derivatives Catastrophe (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

A bank too big to fail is too big a risk (The Sydney Morning Herald)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Saturday roundup (01-18-14)

The 'too big to fail' problem just got worse: Far from imposing a leverage ratio of 5pc, 10pc or even 15pc, the Basel committee continues to propose a leverage ratio of just 3pc – only slightly above that displayed by the UK banking industry just before the last collapse (The Telegraph)

Hollande Converts, Proposes Austerity and Lower Taxes To Boost Growth in France (Forbes)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 605 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

DuPage National Bank of Illinois First Bank Failure of 2014 [as posted here yesterday] (Problem Bank List)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, January 17, 2014

Friday roundup (01-17-14)

Deflation in the euro zone: The euro zone needs a history lesson (The Economist blogs) Should we worry about deflation? (The Economist blogs)

France warns deficit bigger than expected (The Associated Press)

[In the US] 850,000 may have $90 less in food stamps (CNNMoney)

Extreme Weather Wreaking Havoc on Food as Farmers Suffer (Bloomberg)

Great Recession demonstrated nation can’t afford cuts to Social Security (The Hill blogs)

Steven Brill Extended Interview Pt. 1: In this exclusive, unedited interview, Steven Brill examines the monopolistic pricing structure of American health care. (The Daily Show with Jon Stewart)



Steven Brill Extended Interview Pt. 2: In this exclusive, unedited interview, journalist Steven Brill discusses skewed health care pricing structures and the Catch-22 of insurance subsidies. (The Daily Show with Jon Stewart)



Student Loans, the Next Big Threat to the U.S. Economy? (Bloomberg)

DuPage National Bank fails; Republic Bank is the buyer (Crain's Chicago Business) DuPage National Bank of West Chicago IL had a troubled assets ratio of 232.5%. (BankTracker)

Intel to cut over 5,000 jobs (CNNMoney)

Citi to lay off 650 from Washington County facility by end of year (The Herald Mail of Hagerstown, Maryland)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Thursday roundup (01-16-14)

'Fatal spiral' of fiscal crises threatens global economy in 2014: Ballooning debt levels in advanced economies pose biggest threat to the global economy, World Economic Forum report warns (The Telegraph)

Euro zone inflation slows in December, IMF flags deflation risk (Reuters)

ALBERT EDWARDS: We're On The Cliff Of Deflation And Markets Don't Seem To Care (The Business Insider)

U.S. says Europe bank failure fund inadequate (Reuters)

'True' euro zone stress test could show $1 trillion hole in banks: study (Reuters)

Pope sacks 4 cardinals in Vatican Bank in cleanup (CNBC)

Yahoo CEO Mayer Dismisses Operating Chief De Castro (Bloomberg) Henrique de Castro out as Yahoo COO (Fortune)

Yahoo Editor-in-Chief Singh quits: report (Marketwatch) Exclusive: Yahoo’s Editor-in-Chief Jai Singh Departs Company (Recode)

Flagstar to cut 700 jobs in restructuring move (Crain's Detroit Business)

[688] United flight attendants face furloughin labor dispute (CNBC)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-16-14)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Initial jobless claims dipped by 2,000 to 326,000 in the week ended Jan. 11, the Labor Department said Thursday. That's' the lowest level in six weeks." (Marketwatch)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Wednesday roundup (01-15-14)

Lagarde Warns Officials to Fight Deflation ‘Ogre’ Decisively (Bloomberg)

Coming 'oil glut' may push global economy into deflation: OPEC spare capacity set to reach levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, analysts say by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Deflation can still pose a danger to the fragile recovery by Stephen King (HSBC)

Europe needs a credible deflation strategy (CNBC) Desperate times, desperate measures (The Economist blogs)

Worrying predictions for Eurozone living standards (The Financial Times blogs)

EU Lawmakers Seal Deal on Financial Market Rules Overhaul (Bloomberg)

Recession-weary Italians catch nostalgia for lira (Reuters)

U.S. Senate hearing urges quicker commodity limits on banks (Reuters)

Ads Attacking on Health Law Stagger Outspent Democrats (The New York Times)

Penney to close 33 stores, cut 2,000 jobs to stem losses (Reuters)

Sears Canada to cut more than 1,600 jobs (Reuters)

Ford: Half of [its roughly 1,800] Avon Lake Workers to be Laid Off (Fox8 Cleveland)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Tuesday roundup (01-14-14)

For true recovery, markets must be in tandem with economic activity by Satyajit Das (The Economic Times of India)

How serious is the risk of deflation in the euro zone? (The Economist blogs)

Greece hopeful, but any debt relief likely to be symbolic (Reuters)

Francois Hollande vows 'supply-side' assault on French state, doubles down on EMU austerity agenda: French leader Francois Hollande stuns left-wing of his own Socialist Party by calling for a new economic strategy based on “supply-side” policies by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Philippine disaster relief comes with a catch: more debt (Al Jazeera)

Lakshman Achuthan Sees U.S. In Current Recession (Benzinga) ACHUTHAN: I'm Not Budging From My Call That A Recession Started In 2012 (The Business Insider)

Extension of unemployment benefits dead in Senate for now (CBSNews)

2.3 million children have a long-term jobless parent (CNNMoney)

ObamaCare bailout train gains steam (FoxNews) Insurance-Company Bailouts (National Review Online) [versus] Debunking The Latest Obamacare Myth: The ‘Insurance Company Bailout’ (Think Progress) Right-Wing Media Falsely Claim ACA Creates Taxpayer-Funded Bailout (Media Matters for America)

U.S. official says new rules likely for banks in physical commodities (Reuters) Fed may restrict bank ownership of commodities (McClatchy Washington Bureau) Fed Weighs Further Restrictions on Banks’ Commodities Units (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Monday roundup (01-13-14)

Deflation is real spectre looming on the horizon [in Europe]: The eurozone moving out of recession and improving economic output are positive signs, but deflation remains a key risk to the region. (FT Adviser) Deflation risk remains in EU periphery (The Australian Associated Press) On the road to double-dipped recession or deflation? (The Economist blogs)

The sooner deflation-hit Europe can agree on burden-sharing, the better: The eurozone has already put virtually impossible demands on member states (The Telegraph)

IMF adds four European countries [= Denmark, Finland, Norway and Poland] to financial risk list (Reuters)

Three ex-Rabobank traders charged with manipulating Yen Libor (Reuters)

WASHINGTON & WALL STREET: JANET YELLEN'S FOMC PUTS U.S. ON PATH TO DEFLATION by Christopher Whalen -- ["Last week’s job numbers suggest very strongly that the Obama Depression may be accelerating."] (Breitbart)

Half of U.S. Counties Haven’t Recovered From Recession (The Wall Street Journal blogs) County Tracker 2013: On the Path to Recovery (National Association of Counties)

U.S. wealth gap grew during recession, Stanford report finds (The Los Angeles Times) National Report Card on Poverty and Inequality (The Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality)

Dollar Stores Are Getting Too Expensive For Many Americans [Quartz via] (The Huffington Post)

Young adult enrollment in health care marketplaces lags (McClatchy Washington Bureau) Obamacare may get sick if young Americans don't sign up (Reuters)

10 Money Lessons From Elderly Americans Who Have Seen It All (The Motley Fool)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Sunday roundup (01-12-14)

George Osborne demands EU reform to aid economic recovery: Chancellor will say Britain’s drive to shake up European Union and make it more business-friendly is vital to stop the continent slipping back into economic doldrums (The Telegraph)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

Saturday roundup (01-11-14)

Bailout Risk, Far Beyond the Banks (The New York Times)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 613 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday, January 10, 2014

Friday roundup (01-10-14)

Quote of the Day:

"...the average unemployed person [in the United States] has been out of work for longer than anyone since the end of World War II." -- Matthew C. Klein, writer for Bloomberg View. (Bloomberg)

Worst Jobs Gain In Years [= " less than half what was expected"] Muddles [US] Recovery Story (Investor's Business Daily) The December Jobs Report Is Drunk: With only 74K new jobs and the unemployment rate at its lowest since 2008, the December monthly jobs report dumped a steaming pile of caution on the red carpet of economic optimism. (The Daily Beast) December jobs report drastically lower than expected (Deseret News)

Fed Faces Rate Hike/Jobless Rate Dilemma (FoxBusiness)

How weak job participation rips the housing recovery (CNBC)

Why Obama Is Afraid to Tout the Recovery: The White House doesn't want to herald the turnaround only to see the economy sputter out. (The National Journal)

Millionaires' Club: For First Time, Most Lawmakers are Worth $1 Million-Plus (Open Secrets blog)

If You're Waiting For An "Economic Collapse", Just Look At What Is Happening To Europe (ZeroHedge blog)

Mario Draghi: strap on your Pickelhaube and buy fistfuls of German Bunds by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph blogs)

Trio of weaker data reports takes shine off UK recovery (Reuters) Manufacturing and construction figures show fragility of economic recovery: Latest ONS figures reveal that Britain's economy is increasingly unbalanced and continues to depend on stimulus (The Guardian blogs)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday, January 9, 2014

Thursday roundup (01-09-14)

Draghi: Too soon to declare euro zone victory (CNBC)



France's debt load in 'danger zone' - national audit office (Reuters)

Italian joblessness hits record as it seeks higher foreign investment: Italian joblessness hits a fresh high, underlining challenge for the country’s fragile coalition in convincing the international markets it is on the path to recovery (The Telegraph)

Bank of England keeps rates at record lows: Central bank maintains 0.5pc base rate and £375bn quantitative easing programme, surprising some by not releasing accompanying statement [giving forward guidance] (The Telegraph)

China inflation hits 7-month low, eases tightening fears (Reuters) Economists React: China’s Inflation Tepid, and Set to Stay That Way (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Extreme weather driving up [Canada's] home insurance costs (The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)

Why ‘Too Big to Fail’ Is a Bigger Problem Than Ever [in the US] (The Fiscal Times)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-09-14)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"In the seven-days ended Jan. 4, initial jobless claims fell by 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 330,000, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Wednesday roundup (01-08-14)

Euro-Area Unemployment at 12.1% Shows Economic Struggles (Bloomberg)

Greece begins EU presidency by saying austerity policies are intolerable: Greek government quick to criticise imposition of austerity, spending cuts and fiscal policy by Berlin and Brussels (The Guardian)

Crisis: Greece, nearly half of incomes below poverty line (ANSAMed)

Liberation Theology is back as Pope Francis holds capitalism to account: Amid accusations of Marxism, Pope Francis has turned the Vatican into the spearhead of radical economic thinking by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Gloomy Americans foresee downhill slide to 2050 [Reported 5 days ago] (The Associated Press)

Income Growth Has Stalled for Most Americans: New Census data confirms what millions of Americans already know: The gap between the rich and the rest is steadily widening. (Mother Jones)

Senators Start 2014 With More ‘Too Big To Fail’ Criticism (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Sen. Warren refuses to quit on banking oversight: Wants behind-the-scenes details on mortgage settlements (HousingWire) Elizabeth Warren, the antidote to CNBC: The senator schools the talking heads on bank regulation (Columbia Journalism Review)

Arctic chill exposes weakness of U.S. natural gas system (Reuters)

Polar vortex chills Americans with another day of record cold temperatures: The polar vortex held its grip over the U.S., bringing frigid winds to places accustomed to cold winters and even sending ice and snow into the Deep South. The record negative temperatures caused some towns in Indiana to lose power and stranded train passengers near Chicago. Judy Woodruff reports. [Aired Jan. 7] (PBSNewshour)



Big Chill: US Gripped by Coldest Day in Decades: It's below freezing in each of the 50 states, including the Deep South where the cold has already shattered records. [Aired Jan. 7] (NBC Nightly News with Brian Williams)




Macy's restructures as it reports holiday sales up 3.6%: Macy's will lay off 2,500 workers but hire others ["keeping the workforce at its current level"] as it aims to save $100 million a year (USAToday)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.