Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Wednesday roundup (9-30-15)

IMF's Lagarde says global economic growth is slowing (Reuters)

Deflation returns: Prices are falling again in Europe (CNNMoney) Eurozone Consumer Prices Falling Once Again Due to Cheap Oil (The Associated Press) Euro zone inflation turns negative, putting ECB in corner (Reuters)

Eurozone is out of a recession, but wow, the recovery is weak: 19 European nations seeing a very limited recovery, CEPR says (Marketwatch)

German Unemployment Unexpectedly Rises in Sign of Economic Risks (Bloomberg)

How Greece could collapse the eurozone: EU fails to recognize that its actions may destabilize Europe by Satyajit Das (Marketwatch)

Will China Lead the World Into Recession?: A recent report from a Citibank economist has Wall Street worried that the world's second largest economy is skating on thin ice—and threatening to pull the rest of us down with it. (Time)

Does China Have A Debt Problem? Amid Slowdown, Beijing Reports Soaring Debt (International Business Times)

Household debt [in Canada] rises at fastest pace in nearly three years (The Globe and Mail of Toronto)

American manufacturing is in recession (The Business Insider)

Congress averts government shutdown, sends funding measure to Obama (Reuters) Government Shutdown Averted as Congress Passes Spending Bill (The New York Times) How Planned Parenthood could still cause a government shutdown (just not today) (The Washington Post)

Democrats Urge Government to Refund Billions in Student Loans: Cheated students deserve loan relief, say House Democrats. (Bloomberg) College student debt is weighing on economy [Editorial] (The Florida Times-Union of Jacksonville) Pass student loan reform bill to head off debt crisis [Editorial] (Palm Beach Post)

The failed recovery in 9 charts: 9 charts highlighting the lackluster performance of the economy. (MyBudget360)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Tuesday roundup (9-29-15)

Global debt growth returns to pre-crisis levels (CityAM) Allianz Global Wealth Report 2015 (Allianz)

The Volkswagen scandal: A mucky business: Systematic fraud by the world’s biggest carmaker threatens to engulf the entire industry and possibly reshape it (The Economist)

Beware the rise of radical Right as migrants arrive in Europe, says German spy chief: There is a mobilisation on the street of Right-wing extremists in connection with the refugee crisis, says Hans-Georg Maassen (Agence France Presse)

German Inflation Drops Below Zero in Euro-Area Price Alert (Bloomberg) German prices fall in September for first time in eight months [and "could push the euro zone rate below zero"] (Reuters)

Shell to cut 1,300 jobs in Malaysia over two years (FuelFix blog)

Chesapeake Cuts 15% of Workforce [=740 jobs] to Cope With Price Drop [in Commodities] (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Monday roundup (9-28-15)

Political uncertainty [following the election of secessionist parties in the Catalonia region] threatens to tap the brakes on Spain’s fledgling recovery (Reuters blogs) Victorious Catalan separatists claim mandate to break with Spain (Reuters) Spain Has Just Become a Danger for the Eurozone Again (The Street)

Spain's Brain Drain Is a Eurozone Problem (BloombergView)

Polls show UK public closely split over remaining in EU (Reuters) Huge 'Brexit' boost as now MORE voters back leaving EU than don't: THE campaign to get Britain out of the European Union received a huge boost today as a new poll revealed more UK voters now want to cut ties with Brussels than don't. (The Express)

Saudi Arabia Withdrew Billions From Markets, Estimates Show ["to plug its budget deficit"] (Bloomberg)

China had better avoid global debt-deflation trap (The Japan Times)

China’s Coming Great Depression: China is steering down the same course that took the United States into its Great Depression. (The Federalist)

Can Low Inflation Drive the 10-Year to 1% Yield?: Gary Shilling, president at A. Gary Shilling, discusses the impact of low inflation on the U.S. Treasury market, the Federal Reserve's focus on China and the global economy and the ability of commodities to clear their markets. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Bloomberg)



Here's Why We Are Heading Towards Deflation: A. Gary Shilling & Co. President Gary Shilling discusses the price of commodities and deflation. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Bloomberg)



Fed Officials See Interest-Rate Increase on Track for 2015 (Bloomberg)

There’s a New, Massive Threat to the U.S. Economy [= the level of corporate debt]: And it's starting to concern even those who are getting rich from it (Time)

Brazil corporate defaults hit three-year high as recession worsens (Reuters)

Deutsche Bank predicted to cut 10,000 jobs: The German investment bank's London arm could be particularly hard hit as new chief executive John Cryan slashes costs (The Telegraph)

Whole Foods Market to cut about 1,500 jobs (Reuters) Whole Foods’ job cuts ignore a bigger problem: We don’t like being treated like chumps (The Dallas Morning News blogs) Why Whole Foods is cutting jobs: Sensitive to its reputation for high prices, the high-end grocer is reducing overhead. It’s hard on employees—but it’ll help ease the toll on consumers’ wallets. (Fortune)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Sunday roundup (9-27-15)

Goldman Sachs: “Peak Coal” Is Here (Oil Price)

Washington guided Greece in bailout talks, envoy reveals (Kathimerini)

Victorious Catalan separatists claim mandate to break with Spain (Reuters) Pro-Secession Parties in Catalonia Win Landmark Vote (The Associated Press)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Saturday roundup (9-26-15)

John Boehner could cash in as a lobbyist once he leaves Congress (USAToday)

September 2015: Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 276 Institutions, Q3 2015 Transition Matrix (Calculated Risk blog)

Longmay to cut 100,000 coal jobs (China Daily)

Cenovus Energy says more layoffs [=540] coming in the next few weeks: Spokesperson says it's a 'very difficult time' for the Calgary-based company (The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Friday roundup (9-25-15)

Austerity is being used as a cover-story for class war against the poor, Yanis Varoufakis says: Economics professor points to tax cuts for the wealthy and service cuts for others (The Independent)

Young middle class lose out most from deflation - study [by European Central Bank] (Reuters)

Greece must 'quickly implement' bailout deal: Tsipras: Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has said the country quickly needs to enforce economic reforms. Tsipras won snap elections earlier this week after signing up for a third aid package with international creditors. (Deutsche Welle)

Japan falls back into deflation for first time since 2013 (The Financial Times) Japan consumer prices fall for first time since launch of BOJ stimulus (Reuters)

John Boehner, House Speaker, Will Resign From Congress (The New York Times) Reaction to House Speaker John Boehner's resignation (FoxNews) Boehner’s exit raises a big worry for the economy (The Washington Post blogs)

America's companies are hoarding $1.4 trillion in cash (CNNMoney)

Emerging headache: Brazil sinks deeper into recession: Poor government policy and slowing demand for natural resources are plaguing the world’s 7th largest economy. (Fortune)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Thursday roundup (9-24-15)

Slower global growth involves risks for eurozone - ECB's Liikanen (Reuters)

After year of stonewalling, Volkswagen stunned U.S. regulators with confession (Reuters) Problems at Volkswagen Start in the Boardroom (The New York Times)

Deutsche Bank – the New Lehman Brothers? (Armstrong Economics blog) Exclusive: Deutsche Bank to cut workforce by a quarter [=  roughly 23,000 jobs] - sources [Sept. 14] (Reuters)

Norway Cuts Rates to Record Low to Save Economy From Oil Slump (Bloomberg)

Young adults [in the UK] could face a lifetime of debt woes, warns Citizens Advice: More are being forced to turn to bank and payday loans as well as borrowing from friends and family (The Independent)

China in the Debt-Deflation Trap (Project Syndicate)

Orders for US durable goods fall 2% in August (The Associated Press)

Banks will pull the plug on energy companies (The Business Insider)

Caterpillar slashes revenue forecast, cutting up to 10,000 jobs (Reuters) Caterpillar `Bites the Bullet' as Oil Rout Compounds Mining Pain (Bloomberg) CATERPILLAR WARNS: Bad news is 'converging' and now we have to make some major changes (The Business Insider)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 09-24-15)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. ["'I think that we're hoping for the numbers to stay below 600,000, and not until we get below 500,000 can we be more certain that there is an economic recovery,' said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh." (Reuters)]

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Jobless claims inched higher by 3,000 to 267,000 in the week ended Sept. 19, only partially reversing the sharp 17,000 decline over the prior two weeks, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Wednesday roundup (9-23-15)

Eurozone economy showing signs of slowing in September as economists warn of VW impact (The Associated Press)

Draghi: More risks to growth outlook have emerged (CNBC)

Volkswagen could pose bigger threat to German economy than Greek crisis (Reuters) VW scandal: $7.3B profit warning but damage could hit Germany (CNBC) Volkswagen CEO quits over 'grave crisis' (CNNMoney) Volkswagen's appalling clean diesel scandal, explained (Vox) Draconian US copyright rules made it easier for Volkswagen to cheat (Quartz)

Portugal's 2014 budget deficit rises sharply after loan to troubled bank is included (The Associated Press)

China Sept flash factory PMI unexpectedly falls to six-and-a-half year low (Reuters)

China Debt Surge Echoes Japan Slowdown Pattern, Chanos Says (Bloomberg)

U.S. factory activity stuck at near two-year low in September: Markit (Reuters)

Reforming the Federal Reserve’s Rescue Authority (Senator Elizabeth Warren and Senator David Vitter) (Youtube)



MBTA report cites 'unsustainable' structural deficits (The Boston Business Journal)

Glencore Zambia Unit Tells Government It Sees 3,800 Job Cuts (Bloomberg)

Young's Seafoods to cut 650 jobs but retains Scottish sites (Daily Record of Glasgow, Scotland)

Rockwell Collins to Eliminate 500 Positions (KGAN)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Tuesday roundup (9-22-15)

Central banks fret stimulus efforts are falling short [Sept. 18] (Reuters)

[German Automaker] Volkswagen Sets Aside $7.2 Billion to Pay for Emissions Cheating Scandal (NBCNews) Volkswagen emission scandal widens: 11 million cars affected (USAToday) Embattled VW to face criminal investigation in US and further scrutiny in S. Korea: The US Department of Justice has launched a criminal investigation into Volkswagen after the carmaker admitted to violating environmental standards. The probe comes in addition to previous fines. (Deutsche Welle) Volkswagen CEO's days appear numbered as emissions crisis deepens (Reuters)

VW scandal more proof something is rotten in European corporations: Das Screwup: A culture of deception and corruption has seeped into multinationals (Marketwatch)

Triumphant Tsipras returns to fight for Greek economy, debt relief (Reuters)

UK deficit rises steeply after surprise fall in tax receipts: Chancellor under pressure ahead of spending cuts review as higher Whitehall spending and a dip in self-assessment revenue boost deficit (The Guardian)

[In the United States,] Deficits and debt are no longer at the top of the GOP agenda (The Washington Post blogs)

Renters Will Continue to Struggle for the Next Decade, Harvard Study Says (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Groupon to cut 1,100 jobs as it restructures outside N. America (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Monday roundup (9-21-15)

ECB must not fall behind curve in deflation fight: BoI's Gaiotti (Reuters)

[German Automaker] VW's Emissions Cheating Found by Curious Clean-Air Group (Bloomberg) 'Made in Germany' lies in the 'gutter' after Volkswagen caught cheating: VW's conspiracy to rig emissions exposes it as the 'Lance Armstrong' of the car industry, once again revealing corrupt reflexes in German boardrooms by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney rings alarm over China's debt (This is Money)

U.S. existing home sales fall more than expected (Reuters)

Teachers Strike Possible After [Head of Chicago School System] Claypool Announces 5,000 Potential Layoffs: The layoffs would take effect by Thanksgiving if the state does not offer any financial help to CPS, according to Forrest Claypool (NBCChicago)

BAE Systems cutting about 650 Norfolk shipyard jobs (The Associated Press)

Another EU Nation Has Banned Planting GMO Crops: Northern Ireland has followed Scotland in saying that genetically engineered varieties cannot be grown in the country. (TakePart) Environment Minister, Mark H Durkan today announced that he is prohibiting the cultivation of genetically modified (GM) crops in Northern Ireland. (Northern Ireland Executive) Govt decides to ban GMO food production in Russia – deputy PM (RussiaToday) France bolsters ban on genetically modified crops (Reuters) France + Russia Ban GMOs (EcoWatch)

Download the True Food Shopper's Guide: How to Avoid Foods Made with Genetically Modified Organisms [GMOs] (The Center for Food Safety) Say "No" to GMOs (Non-GMO Project) THE GREAT GMA COVERUP INFOGRAPHIC (WalkByTheWay) GMO Free USA (Facebook) Millions Against Monsanto by OrganicConsumers org (Facebook)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Sunday roundup (9-20-15)

Eurozone Nears Limits of What Monetary Policy Can Do: ECB’s quantitative easing has had some success, but unemployment, business investment remain trouble spots (The Wall Street Journal)

Greek leftist Tsipras returns in unexpectedly decisive vote win (Reuters) Tsipras’s Syriza Set to Return to Power After Resounding Greek Election Victory: Party says it will seek repeat of previous anti-establishment coalition government (The Wall Street Journal)

Greece: the election is over, the economic crisis is not: Alexis Tsipras’s renewed mandate will allow him to push for more debt relief and an easing of austerity conditions (The Guardian) Alexis Tsipras’s Victory Means He Must Now Implement Austerity Greece Had Long Rejected (Foreign Policy)

Japanese Researchers Think China’s GDP Could Crash to Minus 20 Percent in Next 5 Years (The Epoch Times)

Yellen Is Trapped in the Worst Nightmare Ever (Armstrong Economics)

US farmland prices 'falling at a pace of 6-7%' (Agrimoney)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Saturday roundup (9-19-15)

Greeks vote on whether to give leftists another chance (Reuters)

Michael Bernegger - THE MATTERHORN INTERVIEW – September 2015 -- [who says we are in "a debt deflation and probably the worst in history"] (Youtube)



UK interest rates may have to be cut, warns Bank of England chief economist: Andy Haldane suggests a rate cut may improve economic growth, given signs third phase of global financial crisis is looming (The Guardian)

Fed Officials Make Case for 2015 Liftoff After September Hold (Bloomberg) Three Fed officials on board for rate hike before year-end (Marketwatch)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Friday roundup (9-18-15)

France Credit Rating Cut to Aa2 by Moody’s on Growth Outlook (Bloomberg)

Italy hikes 2016 deficit-gdp forecast to 2.2 pct from 1.8 pct (Reuters)

Will yet another Greek vote spark new debt crisis? (CNNMoney)

BOJ brainstorms stimulus overhaul as options dwindle - sources (Reuters)

It Begins: Australia's Largest Investment Bank Just Said "Helicopter Money" Is 12-18 Months Away (ZeroHedge blog)

Janet Yellen Sees a ‘Very Depressed’ [United States] Housing Market: The Fed chief noted that housing is a small but important sector of the economy (Bloomberg)

This Is What Yellen Said About Negative Rates Coming To The US (ZeroHedge blog)

Johnson Controls to cut 3,000 jobs in two years (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Thursday roundup (9-17-15)

Global economy worries prompt Fed to hold rates steady (Reuters) Federal Reserve keeps key interest rate at zero, citing global turmoil (The Washington Post blogs) Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged (The New York Times) Why good jobs numbers may never be enough (The Economist blogs) FOMC Statement: No Rate Hike (Calculated Risk blog)

Fed Makes Same Mistake as it did in 1927 by Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics) Stockman: Fed Needs to Stop Its Jihad Against the Savers, Retirees of America [Sept. 14] (FoxBusiness)


4.4 Million U.S. Properties Remain in Negative Equity (World Property Journal)

Bank of England hawks may not swoop on interest rates just yet: Despite hints of a winter increase in borrowing costs, recent figures suggest the economy is going through a soft patch rather than something more serious (The Guardian)

Hayman Capital's Bass: China's real problem is its banking sector: Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and managing partner, calls attention to a real problem he sees with banking sectors across Asia (CNBC)

Kyle Bass: EMs will falter, next two years will be tough: Kyle Bass, Hayman Capital Management founder and managing partner, explains his confidence in sounding the alarm over emerging markets (CNBC)

Edinburgh Council warns of 2,000 job cuts (The BBC)

Qualcomm cuts 1,314 jobs in San Diego (The San Diego Union-Tribune)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 09-17-15)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. ["'I think that we're hoping for the numbers to stay below 600,000, and not until we get below 500,000 can we be more certain that there is an economic recovery,' said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh." (Reuters)]

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell by 11,000 to 264,000 in the seven days ended Sept. 12. the Labor Department reported Thursday. This is the lowest level of claims since mid-July, when claims fell to 255,000, the lowest level since September 1974." (Marketwatch)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Wednesday roundup (9-16-15)

OECD trims growth outlook but urges Fed action this week (Reuters) Debt storm looms as US walks tightrope of higher rates: 'Major uncertainties' including a hard landing in China and threat of rapid US rate rises pose serious risks to global growth, says OECD (The Telegraph)

Euro zone inflation grinds even slower in August, raises expectations of more QE (Reuters)

France sticks to deficit targets, says recovery justifies delays (Reuters)

Bank of England edges closer to first interest rate rise in nine years: Two monetary policy committee members tell MPs increase is needed soon but governor still favours wait until end of year (The Guardian)

Japan Rating Cut by S&P as Abe Falls Short of Early Promise (Bloomberg)

More than 1.7 million Australians will live in debt for the rest of their lives (but we reveal how you can make sure you're NOT one of them) (The Daily Mail)

Consumer Prices in U.S. Drop in August on Plunging Energy (Bloomberg)

Manufacturing in New York shrinks for second straight month (The Associated Press)

The Federal Reserve is trying to do what nobody else has been able to do (The Washington Post blogs)

Poverty, Wages Remain Stagnant Despite Economic Recovery: Rate of uninsured Americans is down across the board. (U. S. News & World Report) The Richest Americans Are Winning the Economic Recovery: Their incomes have fully recovered—and then some (Bloomberg)

Remembering 2008: It Could Have Been Another Depression (Conversable Economist blog)

[In the UK] Edinburgh Council to cut 3,000 jobs says Unison (The BBC)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tuesday roundup (9-15-15)

Europe Closes Borders, Stranding Migrants at Crossings: Border crossings swelled with desperate migrants, as European countries began implementing emergency border closures. (NBCNews) Hungary shuts key refugee route amid widening clampdowns across Europe (The Washington Post) Hungary shuts border crossings, triggering standoff with stranded migrants (The Los Angeles Times) Germany & Austria Close Borders — Schengen Agreement Under Pressure — Will War Emerge? (Armstrong Economics blog)

German economic optimism drops sharply in September (CNBC)

France to run deficit on welfare system until at least 2020 - audit body (Reuters)

Once Unthinkable, Economists Now Say Debt Relief for Greece Is a Given: A new Bloomberg survey shows a sea-change in how economists view Greece (Bloomberg)

Britain returns to zero inflation: Flat-lining of the cost of clothes and petrol mean rate has dropped again (The Daily Mail) 'No-flation' adds up to no rate rise until well into next year: 'MPC can take its time' as tumbling oil price helps push inflation down to 0 per cent (The Independent)

The UK’s reliance on consumer spending may be seriously underestimated (The Business Insider)

Russia's ex-railways chief says nation's economic downturn to last 2 more years (The Associated Press)

Fed tightening 'threatens disaster for debt saturated global economy': A rise in US interest rates may be justified by conditions in the domestic economy, but it could have profoundly destructive consequences for many emerging market economies (The Telegraph)

Donald Trump terrifies Wall Street (CNNMoney)

Odds of a Kanye West Presidency [in 2032]: 90% (Dilbert blog)

Brazil Unveils a $17 Billion Austerity Package as Recession Bites: "These are measures that are quite unpopular" (Time)

HP to cut another 25,000 to 30,000 jobs (CNNMoney)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Monday roundup (9-14-15)

Draghi Seen Expanding QE by Economists Fearing Shallow Recovery (Bloomberg)

Italy to Seek EU Flexibility for Renzi's Tax Cuts, Adviser Says (Bloomberg)

EU Extends Russia Sanctions Over Ukraine Crisis (The Associated Press) Europeans ‘not grasping’ the importance of Ukraine (Reuters blogs) Larry Summers: Why Ukraine’s debt deal is important not just for Ukraine, but also for the West (The Washington Post blogs)

Cooling inflation in India boosts expectations for more rate cuts (Reuters)

Economic instability in China raises the risks of global deflation (The Big Picture blog)

Fitch warns of emerging market shock if Fed sticks to rate plan: Investors do not believe the US Federal Reserve will dare to take away the punch bowl. They may be in for a nasty surprise if it does by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph) Advice for the Fed by Martin Armstrong (Armstrong Economics blog) The Consensus is No Rate Hike this Week (Calculated Risk blog)

7 things you need to know about the debt ceiling (yes, that again) (CNNMoney)

Number of homeless students in U.S. has doubled since before the recession (The Washington Post)

How Wall Street’s Bankers Stayed Out of Jail: The probes into bank fraud leading up to the financial industry’s crash have been quietly closed. Is this justice? (The Atlantic)

Deutsche Bank to cut workforce by a quarter [= roughly 23,000 jobs] - sources (Reuters)

UniCredit plans to cut around 10,000 jobs: source (Reuters)

Glencore's Zambian unit to cut 4,300 jobs - union, sources (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Sunday roundup (9-13-15)

A Major Bank Just Made Global Financial "Meltdown" Its Base Case: "The Worst The World Has Ever Seen" (ZeroHedge blog)

Nomi Prins – This [= The Size and Role Of Central Banks] Will Bring Down The Financial System And Ignite Chaos Around The World (King World News)

BIS fears emerging market maelstrom as Fed tightens: Global debt levels are dangerously high and central banks cannot keep the game going indefinitely, warns the high priest of orthodoxy by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

DOJ Admits: “We Got it Wrong” by William K. Black (The Big Picture blog)

28 charts that show how America changed since the Fed gave us 0% rates (The Business Insider)

The Pope Is Ready to Trash Capitalism to Money-Loving Americans (Bloomberg)

Where Are All the Bees?: Appeals court overturns approval of pesticide over concerns about declining honey bee numbers. (The Associated Press) Court revokes approval of insecticide, citing 'alarming' decline in bees (The Los Angeles Times)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Saturday roundup (9-12-15)

If world slides into recession, policy response to fall short: James Saft (Reuters)

Citi, JPMorgan, other big banks to pay $1.9B in tentative deal to settle price-fixing case (The Associated Press) Wall Street Banks to Settle CDS Lawsuit for $1.87 Billion (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Friday roundup (9-11-15)

Oil could plunge to $20 in doomsday scenario, Goldman Sachs says (USAToday) Ignore Goldman’s Oil Call at Your Peril (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Paul Krugman: Austerity in the name of “respectability is killing the world economy”: "In a depressed, deflationary economy conventional fiscal prudence is dangerous folly," he wrote (Salon) Japan’s Economy, Crippled by Caution (The New York Times)

No more bail-outs: Germany blocks Juncker's eurozone reform drive: Berlin brands Juncker's visions to deepen monetary union as 'unacceptable', rejecting taxpayer rescues for banks and sovereigns (The Telegraph)

Greek bailout mistakes were made: European FinMins (CNBC)

Canada household debt levels rise to record highs (Reuters)

IEA sees U.S. oil output collapsing next year on low prices (Reuters)

Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Slumps to Lowest Level in a Year (Bloomberg)

U.S. Producer Prices Were Unchanged as Inflation Remains Weak: August figures reflect a divergence between higher prices for services and weaker prices for goods (The Wall Street Journal)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Thursday roundup (9-10-15)

Falling [Global] Food Prices, Rising Deflation Risk (BloombergView)

The global economy is nearing a 'structural recession' (The Business Insider)

Greece will likely remain in intensive care for years without more help (Marketwatch)

After Greece, Spain and Portugal face risky elections (CNBC)

Bank of England keeps rates steady, unfazed by overseas risks (Reuters)

Krugman `Really, Really' Worried Abenomics [in Japan] Might Fail (Bloomberg)

Get ready: Experts say a government shutdown is likely [in the United States] (The Washington Post) The U.S. Government May Shut Down (Again). Here's What to Know (Bloomberg) Prospect of Another Shutdown Looms as Congress Girds for Fights Over Spending (The New York Times) As Republicans slam Planned Parenthood, shutdown threatens (Reuters) A government shutdown fight is brewing. This one is over Planned Parenthood. (Vox) How Republicans Continue to Cripple the US Government with Gridlock (Vice)



What Harvard Law Students Need to Know About Corporate Criminal Prosecution (The Harvard Law Record)

Keep Waiting for Wall Street Crime Crackdown (BloombergView)

Brazil has debt rating cut to 'junk' status as problems mount: Standard & Poor’s said its outlook on the country was negative, just as the nation enters recession and is expected to see an even worse 2016 (The Associated Press) Brazil downgrade leaves little choice but austerity for Rousseff (Reuters)

Hard-disk maker Seagate to cut 1,050 jobs worldwide (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 09-10-15)

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. ["'I think that we're hoping for the numbers to stay below 600,000, and not until we get below 500,000 can we be more certain that there is an economic recovery,' said Linda Duessel, market strategist at Federated Investors in Pittsburgh." (Reuters)]

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Initial jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 275,000 in the period running from Aug. 30 to Sep. 5, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

U.S. Jobless Claims Fall By 6,000, Signalling Strong Labor Market: Claims now been below 300,000 for 27 straight weeks, the longest in more than 40 years (The Wall Street Journal)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Wednesday roundup (9-9-15)

Forecasting a global recession (The Economist blogs) Citigroup Sees 55% Risk of a Global Recession Made in China (Bloomberg) ​Could China's slowdown throw the U.S. into reverse? (CBSMoneywatch)

Europe faces political war on two fronts as backlash builds: The EU's Eastern states shocked to lose their sovereignty over borders, just as southern Europe lost economic sovereignty by joining the euro. by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph)

UK auditors sound public-sector debt warning: Watchdog raises fears of £200m shortfall, saying ministers have failed to control government financial assets properly (The Guardian)

China deflation fears grow as producer prices sink most in six years (Reuters)

The real ticking time bomb in China's economy: Real estate debt might do to China’s economy what it did to the United States’. (Fortune)

Tepid Japan GDP stirs central bank easing speculation: Japan's economy contracted by 0.3 percent in the April-June quarter, slightly less than an initial estimate of a 0.4 percent contraction - and beating market expectations of a 0.5 percent decline, according to the Cabinet Office. (Agence France Presse)

[United States] Justice Department Sets Sights on Wall Street Executives (The New York Times)

Debt collectors ordered to refund millions to consumers (CNNMoney)

Chicago Schools Seek State Cash, as Crunch Looms: Officials warn of deep cuts ahead if Illinois, facing its own fiscal crisis, doesn’t pony up $480 million in coming months (The Wall Street Journal)

How Puerto Rico hopes to break its debt spiral and fix its broken economy (The Washington Post blogs) Puerto Rico's recovery plan faces much doubt, many obstacles (Reuters) Puerto Rico to Make Debt Restructuring Proposal in a Few Weeks (Bloomberg)

Lockheed Martin to lay off 500 in information systems, gov't services unit - source (Reuters)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Tuesday roundup (9-8-15)

OECD data point to slower growth in U.S., China (Marketwatch)

Biggest Banks to Gain Flexibility in FSB Too-Big-to-Fail Fix (Bloomberg)

German finmin says must avoid reliance on debt, cenbank stimulus (Reuters)

Yanis Varoufakis: How Europe Crushed Greece (The New York Times)

U.S. Consumers Take on More Debt, Signalling Confidence in Economy: Consumer credit, a reflection of nonmortgage debt, rose $19.1 billion or at a 6.7% annual rate (The Wall Street Journal)

Conservatives have failed to end the Fed, but they’re not giving up hope (The Washington Post blogs)

Samsung to Cut 10% of Head Office Staff [= ~ 10,000], Economic Daily Says (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Monday, September 7, 2015

Monday roundup (9-7-15)

Global Recovery Faces Hurdles as Economic Overhauls Stall: Group of 20 officials acknowledge they haven’t stepped up reforms, despite warnings of risks to the world economy (The Wall Street Journal)

ECB sets capital requirements for euro zone's top lenders (Reuters)

[UK] Households struggling with problem debt climbs 28% in three years as economic recovery fails to reach vulnerable (The Independent) Problem debt: number of households affected rises by a quarter: New research finds 3.2 million families spent at least 25% of their gross monthly pay servicing unsecured debt in 2014 (The Guardian)

China revises down 2014 GDP growth to 7.3 pct from 7.4 pct (Reuters)

Stop blaming China—the problem is bigger than that (CNBC)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Sunday roundup (9-6-15)

Russia flirts with Saudi Arabia as OPEC pain deepens: Kremlin energy tsar says OPEC may have to ditch its low-price policy within months. But Russia needs to cut output quietly too by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard (The Telegraph) U.S. oil drillers cut rigs as crude prices collapse: Baker Hughes (Reuters)

Jim Rickards: "The System Is Highly Unstable—If [Confidence] Is Lost, It Can Melt Down Very Quickly" -- ["We're living in the world of King Dollar. But what is that? That's deflation. That's the definition of deflation: When you get more for your money ... that is what deflation is."] (Youtube)

Schools [in the United States] Want the Sky to Be the Limit on Loans: University lobbyists are mobilizing to fight ceilings on borrowing (Bloomberg)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Saturday roundup (9-5-15)

G20 eyes faster economic reforms as cheap credit not enough for growth (Reuters) G-20 nations say growth short of expectations; remain confident recovery will gain speed (The Associated Press)

Central banks falling short of 2 pct. inflation target (The Washington Post)

Dim prospects for Europe boost chances of extra money printing (Reuters)

ECB Should Drop 2% Inflation Fantasy (BloombergView)

Soaring student loan debt [in the United States] poses risk to nation's future economic growth (The Los Angeles Times)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Friday, September 4, 2015

Friday roundup (9-4-15)

This refugee crisis is too big for Europe to handle - its institutions are broken: The EU needs a new asylum system based on reality. But without an influx of migrants, it faces a future of economic stagnation (The Guardian) A European Disaster: Will the refugee crisis tear the European Union apart? (Slate)

Interview (2015) with Greece's Ex-Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis [Aug. 28] (Youtube)



Why China is a serious problem for the euro zone (CNBC)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Thursday roundup (9-3-15)

IMF staff warn G20 of increasing downside economic growth risks (Reuters)

Deflation is coming to Europe (The Business Insider)

Mario Draghi ready to prop up eurozone with more stimulus: ECB president says growth prospects in the single currency area have suffered and could worsen if China’s slowdown bites (The Guardian) ECB's Draghi pledges more QE if needed (CNBC)

Central Banker [in Europe] Urges Lying To The Public About Bank Health (ZeroHedge blog) Supervisors should not tell whole truth about bank health - BuBa economist (Reuters)

Hillary emails show US tried to help Greece and maintain EU relations: A batch of State Dept. emails on Greece reveals America's behind-the-scenes efforts to garner IMF relief. (CNBC)

Bank executive sentenced to 8 years behind bars in bailout’s biggest criminal case (The Washington Post)

     The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats exist today that could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. Key threats include excessive risk-taking by financial firms, unchecked by effective regulation; the continued existence of "too big to fail" institutions; and most especially, the amassing of levels of public and private debt which could become unsustainable.