Economic Signs of the Times

Monday roundup (02-13-12)

2012-02-13T20:20:00.000-08:00

SPIEGEL Interview with George Soros: 'Merkel Is Leading Europe in the Wrong Direction' (Spiegel Online) George Soros doesn't like the direction in which Europe is heading (FXStreet)

Greece and Germany are playing a dangerous game of chicken: this cannot last -- "The problem for Greece is that the whole of Europe is now entering an austerity-induced depression ..." (The Telegraph blogs)

Greece Is Burning and Nobody Cares (The Motley Fool)

Economists Warn of Long-Term Perils in Rescue of Europe’s Banks (The New York Times)

6 European Nations Get Downgrades (The New York Times)

Moody’s Puts Pressure on Osborne as Debt Outlook Turns Negative (Bloomberg) Moody's says U.K., France debt outlook 'negative' (USAToday)

Bank lending to business slumps by £10bn: Blow for Osborne as his big push fails to help cash-strapped firms (The Daily Mail)

Number of new mortgages [in the UK] falls to lowest level since 1974 as people renting doubles (The Daily Mail)

Italy: Amid Eurozone Crisis, 'Going the Greece Way' Would Be Disastrous (PBS NewsHour)

Watch Italy: 'Going the Greece Way' Would Be Disastrous on PBS. See more from PBS NewsHour.

Obama budget: National debt will be $1 trillion higher in a decade than forecast (The Washington Post) Obama's budget: Government still getting bigger: Obama unveils record election-year budget: It includes some cuts, but government still growing (The Associated Press) Only one party is serious about the deficit (The Washington Post blogs) Obama's budget would shrink annual deficits, but national debt still explodes (McClatchy Newspapers) Speaker Boehner: President’s Budget Bad for Jobs and America’s Seniors (The US House of Representatives) Republicans reject Obama budget as gimmicks, tricks and higher taxes (Human Events) Opposing view: President's budget makes many tough choices (USAToday)

A New Perspective on the Fed’s Balance Sheet [chart] (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

Soros: Deregulation led to collapse (CNNMoney)

Mortgage deal to provide FHA with $1 billion in cash (Reuters) Bank Deal’s $1 Billion Infusion Makes FHA’s Need for U.S. Aid ‘Obsolete’ (Bloomberg)

Student Loan Debt: Next Big Economic Shock (FoxBusiness)

On Meredith Whitney, Munis and Leaks (Bruce Krasting blog)

Cities Face Mass Layoffs, Scarce Resources in 'Post-Development' Era: Long Beach To Lose 48 Employees; Statewide Estimate As High As 3,000 (The Long Beach [CA] Business Journal)

ANZ to Cut 1,000 Jobs (The Wall Street Journal)

Israel's Bank Leumi to cut [800] jobs, close branches (Reuters)

Fracking Could Ruin New York's Organic Food Industry (Treehugger)

Unprecedented loss of Arctic sea ice: Data on the extent of Arctic ice cover over the last few decades suggests there may soon be an ice-free Arctic summer (The Telegraph)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (02-12-12)

2012-02-12T17:22:00.000-08:00

Merkel taking Europe in wrong direction: Soros (Agence France-Presse)

Austerity Plan for Greece Wins Passage in Parliament (The New York Times) Greek lawmakers approve austerity bill as Athens burns (Reuters) Raw Video: Greek Rioting Ahead of Austerity Vote (The Associated Press)

Riots: Greeks Attack Businesses And Cops With Molotov Cocktails (Russia Today)

What if Greece had to get a new currency? (The BBC)

The spectre of deflation rises [in the UK] as inflation falls: Cash-strapped households should be helped by a sharp fall in inflation this week but it carries with it the seeds of an equally uncomfortable outcome - deflation. (The Telegraph)

Japan’s Economy Shrinks More Than Forecast (Bloomberg)

White House defends deficit, wrong time for austerity (Reuters)

Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 958 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

Westpac to cut 550 jobs in Australia (Agence France-Presse)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (02-11-12)

2012-02-11T18:32:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"Unfortunately, our political system is now not functioning the way it used to in the sense that the political parties are more determined to destroy each other than to lead to policies that would benefit the country." -- Financier George Soros (CNN blogs)

EU/Athens standoff fuels possibility of Greek default (Reuters)

Merkel has herself to blame if Greece defaults: If Sunday's vote in Athens is a vote on Greek bankruptcy and the future of eurozone, it’s down to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. (The Telegraph)

It's bailout or chaos, PM Papademos tells Greece (Reuters) Papandreou, Samaras Urge Austerity to Avoid Default Chaos (Bloomberg) "Papademos said, 'It will be the biggest failure of post-dictatorship Greece if, out of want of soul, sheer negligence, lack of responsibility or by fatal error, this country finds itself bankrupt and out of the euro'." (Digital Journal)

Soros: Greek Bailout Won’t Rid Europe of ‘Danger’ (Bloomberg)

I fear for a social explosion: Greeks can't take any more punishment: Helena Smith, who has reported from Athens for more than 20 years, says the country is on the edge of a precipice (The Observer)

Over 100,000 rally in Lisbon against austerity (Reuters)

Unions say Spain labour reform will deepen recession (Reuters)

Fed chief Bernanke says weak housing market is leading Americans to spend less (The Associated Press)

The Myth of Energy Independence: Why We Can't Drill Our Way to Oil Autonomy (The Atlantic)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (02-10-12)

2012-02-10T19:27:00.000-08:00

Greece Plunged Into Political Turmoil Over Austerity Measures (The New York Times) Greeks protest austerity measures: Strikers clashed with riot police over new cuts to accompany a $170 billion bailout needed to avoid default. NBC's Keith Miller reports. (NBC Nightly News)

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

More than a million pensioners 'permanently poorer' as Bank of England pumps another £50bn into the economy (The Daily Mail)

Austria announces five-year austerity plan (Agence France-Presse)

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls More Than Forecast on Fuel Prices: Economy (Bloomberg) Consumer Sentiment Stops Rising (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

National Mortgage Settlement By The Numbers (The Huffington Post blog) The Servicing Settlement: Banks 1, Public 0 (Credit Slips blog) Pimco Says Foreclosure Deal Cheap for Banks, Costly for Pension Investors (Bloomberg)

Mortgage deal means more foreclosures (CNNMoney) Foreclosure settlement may result in wave of home seizures (The Washington Post)

Lack of lending to creditworthy borrowers restricting housing: Bernanke (HousingWire)

Bill Black: On Why White Collar Crime is on the Rise, How to "Hotspot" Elite Financial Crimes, and Why Republicans and Democrats are Not Interested (Capitalism Without Failure) Crimes Rising Against Economy: Bill Black, a former banking regulator, talks about the dramatic rise in white collar crime over the last year. (MSNBC)

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Bank failures in Ill, Ind bring 2012 total to 9 (The Associated Press) Charter National Bank and Trust of Hoffman Estates IL had a troubled assets ratio of 292.3%. (BankTracker) SCB Bank of Shelbyville IN had a troubled assets ratio of 184.6%. (BankTracker)

Alcatel-Lucent to Cut Up to 1,800 Europe Jobs, Union Says (Bloomberg)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (02-09-12)

2012-02-09T19:02:00.000-08:00

European Central Bank leaves rates unchanged, remains evasive on helping Greece with debt (The Associated Press)

Eurozone Crisis Could Hit U.S. Businesses, Warn CEOs (International Business Times)

WHY I DON’T BELIEVE THE EUROZONE CRISIS IS OVER…. (Pragmatic Capitalism)

GAMECHANGER: The ECB Opens The Door To Debt Forgiveness Across Europe (The Business Insider)

Blizzards push Europe energy grids to their limits (Reuters)

Greece bows to further austerity, but bailout delayed until next week: Creditors demand to see action on new pledges as sovereign debt default looms in weeks if rescue package is withheld (The Guardian) Greece Bailout Deal Called [Only] 'Halfway There' (Dow Jones Newswires) Greece bailout: Eurozone ministers set new conditions (The BBC) Greece Must Back Cuts or Risk Euro: Venizelos (Bloomberg)

Greek death spiral accelerates (The Telegraph blogs)

IMF must help avoid Greek "explosion": Italy's Monti (Reuters)

Spain's economy 'to worsen in first quarter' (Agence France-Presse)

Bank of England pumps more cash into economy to support recovery (Reuters) Bank of England launches QE3 on to a still-stormy sea: A new £50bn round of quantitative easing suggests the Bank remains concerned about the economic climate (The Guardian blogs)

In Ireland, EU treaty on debt remains in doubt: If Ireland rejects a recent EU treaty in a national referendum, it could undermine the fiscal compact Europe is hoping will bring the debt crisis under control. (The Christian Science Monitor)

U.S. Postal Service Loses $3.3 Billion, Warns of Cash Drain (Bloomberg) Postal Service loses $3 billion: Asks for legislation from Congress to cut day of delivery (The Washington Times)

The Top Twelve Reasons Why You Should Hate the Mortgage Settlement (Naked Capitalism blog)

PIMCO's El-Erian favors bonds, gold -- [as far as the economy being able to take a shock, he says, "we are in a worse place than we were in '08."] (Reuters)

The Federal Reserve's Explicit Goal: Devalue The Dollar 33% (Forbes)

PepsiCo to Cut 8,700 Jobs, Spend More on Marketing Brands (Bloomberg)

Danske’s 2,000 Job Cuts to Be Frontloaded, Banker Pay Curbed (Bloomberg)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 02-09-12)

2012-02-09T17:57:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Unemployment benefit applications dropped to 358,000, the second-lowest level in nearly four years, according to a government report Thursday." (The Associated Press)

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 358,000 (Calculated Risk blog)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (02-08-12)

2012-02-08T22:33:00.000-08:00

EU Commissioner Says Austerity Focus Feeding Recession (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Survey Finds Grim Outlook on Savings in Europe (The Wall Street Journal)

Talks on Austerity Moves Break Down in Greece (The New York Times) Greek Bailout Talks Hit Snag Over Pension Cuts (The Associated Press) Greek minister heads to Brussels with incomplete bailout deal (Reuters) Brussels gets tough as Greek resistance grows: Eurozone leaders ready to write-off 70% of bank loans to Greece but only if Athens delivers further cuts in pay and pensions (The Guardian) Greek debt not sustainable with 70 pct haircut: S&P (Reuters)

Greece Already Misses 2012 Targets – Anti Austerity Government Could Emerge (Forex Crunch)

‘Greece Should Default Instantly,’ [Greek] Economics Professor Says (CNBC)

Austerity is turning Germany into a basket case too: Now industrial production and export orders are declining even in Europe's powerhouse, as the austerity Berlin demands stifles its customers' spending (The Guardian blogs)

Italian Recession Accelerating (ZeroHedge blog)

Monti extends austerity cuts to his staff: no entertainment expenses, cut back on conventions (The Associated Press)

Down, Not Out, in Paris as Crisis Whittles Away Welfare State (Bloomberg)

S&P Threatens US With Another Downgrade In As Little As 6 Months (ZeroHedge blog)

States Negotiate $26 Billion Deal for Homeowners (The New York Times)

5th Anniversary of the Sub-Prime Crisis (The Big Picture blog)

New York Housing Market Could Still Collapse: Analyst (CNBC)

U.S. Consumer Credit Climbed by $19.3B in Dec. (Bloomberg)

Bankruptcy lawyers: Student debt is looming economic bomb (The Rochester [NY] Democrat and Chronicle)

Bill Black on Financial Fraud Investigations (Bill Moyers & Company)

Nokia to Cut 4,000 Jobs at 3 Factories (The New York Times)

[In Sheffield, England, the City] Council axes 550 jobs ... then spends £400,000 advising on how to empty their bins (The Daily Mail)

[Airport food and beverage operator] Concessions International cutting 530 jobs (The Atlanta Business Chronicle)

American Airlines to cut 500 flight attendants (The Associated Press)

Has Petroleum Production Peaked, Ending the Era of Easy Oil?: A new analysis concludes that easily extracted oil peaked in 2005, suggesting that dirtier fossil fuels will be burned and energy prices will rise (Scientific American)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (02-07-12)

2012-02-07T19:51:00.000-08:00

Schroeder: Soften austerity, adopt euro bonds: Former German leader says austerity could strangle growth (Marketwatch)

Greek trump card fails as stronger Europe shrugs off break-up threat: Europe’s dominant powers and institutions are for the first time willing to risk a Greek default and ejection from the euro if Athens refuses to comply with austerity demands, calculating that the eurozone system is now strong enough to withstand a contagion shock. (The Telegraph) Greek euro exit less damaging now; eurozone much stronger: Dutch PM (Agence France-Presse) [Really?]

Swiss risk deflation if euro crisis worsens: Jordan (Reuters)

The downward mobility of the American middle class by Robert B. Reich (The Chicago Tribune)

Will the Government Put Money Market Funds Out of Business? (The Atlantic)

Student debt pushing more people toward bankruptcy, lawyers say: More than four-fifths of bankruptcy attorneys have seen a notable jump in the number of potential clients with student loan debt, the National Assn. of Consumer Bankruptcy Attorneys says. (The Los Angeles Times)

Lloyds to axe 990 jobs, part of earlier job cuts (Reuters)

Smith & Nephew to cut 800 jobs worldwide: Medical devices group Smith & Nephew is to cut 800 jobs worldwide as part of a $150m (£94.9m) cost cutting exercise. (The Telegraph)

Supervalu cutting 800 corporate and regional jobs (Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal)

Our peak oil premium (The Globe and Mail of Toronto)

A Perfect Storm of Planetary Proportions: The approach of the solar maximum is an urgent reminder that power grids everywhere are more vulnerable than ever to geomagnetic effects [from the magazine of the IEEE, the world's largest professional technology association] (IEEE Spectrum)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (02-06-12)

2012-02-06T20:59:00.000-08:00

It Is Safe to Resume Ignoring the Prophets of Doom ... Right? (The New York Times)

The Financial Crisis Of 2008 Was Just A Warm Up Act For The Economic Horror Show That Is Coming (The Economic Collapse blog)

It's time to panic, but do it decisively (The Australian)

IMF's Blanchard Warns Of 'Deadly' Feedback Loop In Eurozone (Market News International)

Government debt across Europe well above EU limits for healthy economy (The Irish Times)

Europe’s Banks Reluctant to Lend to Companies in Need of Cash (The New York Times blogs)

European Central Bank in a fix over Greek debt: The ECB may be putting the interests of the few banks that have written credit-default swaps before those of Greece, Europe's taxpayers, and creditors by Joseph Stiglitz (Project Syndicate)

EU Van Rompuy: Solving Crisis Taking Longer Than Expected (Dow Jones Newswires)

Euro debt crisis weighs on insurers' 2011 (Reuters)

Citigroup: Risk of Greek Exit From Euro Has Risen to 50% (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Citigroup’s Buiter Sees 50% Chance of Greece Exiting Euro Area (Bloomberg)

IMF's Blanchard sees "very large" Greek haircut (Reuters)

Greece to Eliminate 15,000 Government Jobs (The New York Times)

Italy Gas Situation Critical; EU Coping With Gas Cuts (Dow Jones Newswires) Gas in Europe: Spiked (The Economist)

Romanian government collapses amid public outrage over austerity (The Los Angeles Times blogs) Romania's PM resigns over austerity protests (Al Jazeera)

China Growth Could Halve If Europe Crisis Worsens: IMF (Reuters)

Chinese banks cut exposure to euro zone - paper (Reuters)

Shanghai shipping slump as IMF warns China on euro slump: Shanghai shipping volumes contracted sharply in January as Europe's debt crisis curbed demand for Asian goods, stoking fresh doubts about the strength of the Chinese economy. (The Telegraph)

BOJ's Shirakawa says will do utmost to beat deflation (Reuters)

Huggies Price Cut Shows Why Bond Market Backs Bernanke QE3 (Bloomberg)

Summertime Bankruptcy for Harrisburg? (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Official: Harrisburg bankruptcy remains possibility if no agreement on plan to fix finances (The Associated Press)

Trustee says MF Global sustained itself on customer funds (The Washington Post)

Why the AGs Must Not Settle: Robo-signing Is Just the Tip of the Iceberg by Ellen Hodgson Brown (Dissident Voice) Foreclosure deal doesn’t go far enough, some groups say (The Washington Post)

Confessions of a Publisher: “We’re in Amazon’s Sights and They’re Going to Kill Us” (PandoDaily) Confessions of an Amazon elf (The Globe and Mail) MY HUMBLE OPINION-AMAZON.COM (The Kidz Travlin blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (02-05-12)

2012-02-05T17:12:00.000-08:00

Europe's shadow darkens [global] outlook (Reuters)

Europe's approach to this crisis is evidence of borderline insanity: Persisting with policies that have already failed will prevent Ireland's recovery, writes Independent TD Stephen Donnelly (The Irish Independent)

Greek parties face Monday EU bailout deadline (Reuters) Greek Bailout Hangs on Razor’s Edge as Reforms, Cuts Sought (Bloomberg) "Greek insiders confirmed that the possibility of bankruptcy loomed larger than at any other time." (The Guardian)

Most Germans want Greece to quit euro: poll (Reuters) Eurogroup's Juncker warns of possible Greece default (Reuters)

Britain Prepares for Worst as EU Struggles to End Euro Crisis (Bloomberg)

Second recession fears grow as small business confidence plummets: Three gloomy reports will put pressure on Bank of England to pump £50bn more into economy when it meets this week (The Guardian)

Chinese Deflation and Currency Depreciation Coming Soon (Forbes)

Progress on Letting Big Banks Fail by Simon Johnson (The New York Times blogs)

No Easy Button for the U.S.? (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Nippon Sheet Glass to cut 3,500 jobs, UK output (Reuters)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (02-04-12)

2012-02-04T18:29:00.000-08:00

Soros Says Euro Debt Crisis Could ‘Potentially Destroy' EU (Bloomberg)

Italy’s Monti warns against deepening resentment in debt crisis, Soros fears lost decade (The Associated Press)

Ireland is facing 'a lost decade' due to private debt (The Irish Independent)

Spain Could Yet Regret Its Incomplete Banking Solution (The Wall Street Journal)

Gazprom says unable to meet greater Europe gas demand (Reuters) Moscow Curbs Supplies of Gas Across Europe
(The Wall Street Journal)

[In the US,] A Mortgage Tornado Warning, Unheeded (The New York Times)

Unofficial Problem Bank list unchanged at 958 Institutions (Calculated Risk)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (02-03-12)

2012-02-03T18:51:00.000-08:00

Euro under systemic risk, but can't fail - ECB Costa (Reuters)

"Vultures" identify Portuguese debt as next target (Reuters)

Portugal’s PM wants easier bailout terms for banks, says credit crunch dooming companies (The Associated Press)

'No' vote on EU fiscal pact would be 'devastating for Irish economy': Rejection could trigger a bank run and eventual exit from euro, warn economists (The Irish Independent)

A Bleak Outlook for Long-Term Growth [in the US] (The New York Times)

Unemployment at 8.3% still leaves a vast and destructive jobs deficit: US jobless numbers are falling, but not far or fast enough. We should forget about the budget deficit until unemployment is 5% by Robert Reich (The Guardian) Employment Summary, Part Time Workers, and Unemployed over 26 Weeks (Calculated Risk blog) Graphs: Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, Jobs added (Calculated Risk blog)

Still losing the war on unemployment by Mohamed A. El-Erian (The Washington Post)

Stockman on Fed Policy, U.S. Budget Deficit: David Stockman, former director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Reagan administration, talks about Federal Reserve monetary policy, and the U.S. budget deficit and economy. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Bloomberg)

Deleveraging For Years Ahead (Comstock Partners)

New York sues banks over foreclosures (CNNMoney) Mortgage fraud unit co-chair sues biggest banks (The Associated Press)

Obama administration to move forward with closing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac (The Washington Post)

Bank of America may sell landmark Boston tower: Move part of lender’s effort to raise capital (The Boston Globe)

S.E.C. Is Avoiding Tough Sanctions for Large Banks (The New York Times)

Obama Administration propaganda on prosecuting elite financial frauds by William K. Black (Credit Writedowns blog)

Wall Street [Hearts] Mitt Romney (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

An Abundant Supply of Cheap Oil is the Most Important Resource for Our Future (Oil Price.com)

States seek currencies made of silver and gold (CNNMoney)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (02-02-12)

2012-02-02T21:09:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"I’m against selling any of the gold. As every day goes by, I see deflation in the things you own and inflation in the things you need." -- Hedge-fund manager Kyle Bass (Bloomberg)

S&P stokes up fears of eurozone recession (The Independent)

Time for Last-Minute Merkel to End Her Euro Brinkmanship (The Huffington Post blog)

Debt, austerity and recession threaten slow death for bailed-out Portugal’s economy (The Associated Press) As Greece Nears a Big Debt Deal, Investors Now Fret That Portugal Will Ask for the Same (The New York Times)

Spain tells banks to raise €50 billion against toxic assets, or merge with government help (The Associated Press)

Blanchflower: a second [UK] recession is around the corner: David Blanchflower, economist and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, says the mistakes that were made in the lead up to the 2008 crisis and subsequent recession are being repeated. (CityWire)

Britain heading for double-dip recession, warns think tank (The Scotsman) Chancellor's austerity measures causing UK 'lasting damage', NIESR warns: A former chief economist at the Cabinet Office has accused the Chancellor of causing lasting social and economic damage to the UK because of a refusal to ease austerity in the short-term. (The Telegraph)

Bank of England's Posen attacks banks for failing to deliver value for economy: Taxpayers are getting a bad deal from Britain's banks as lenders are failing to help the economy, Bank of England rate-setter Adam Posen has said. (The Telegraph)

Checkmate For Japanese Sovereign Debt (Seeking Alpha blog)

US Fed's Ben Bernanke warns on eurozone stress: The chairman of Federal Reserve said that there have been "positive" developments in eurozone debt crisis in recent weeks, but warned that a slow US recovery remains vulnerable to any shock from the troubled region. (The Telegraph)

Fed chief warns Congress against hampering growth while cutting debt (The Washington Post)

Jobless rate has fallen because of dropouts: Obama benefits from uncounted (The Washington Times)

Mortgage Rates fall to record low (Calculated Risk blog)

Las Vegas analyst: Foreclosures in U.S. could reach 10 million (The Las Vegas Review-Journal)

Treasury may let investors pay to lend to U.S. government (Reuters)

Invictus: 758 banks at risk of failing (HousingWire)

Mayor says Providence could face bankruptcy without retiree benefit cuts, nonprofit payments (The Associated Press) Providence May Have To Declare Bankruptcy In June (WPRI)

Bloomberg warns of budget deficits in coming years (The Wall Street Journal)

Lax Oversight Blamed in Demise of MF Global (The New York Times blogs)

MF Global U.K. Clients to Receive Initial Payout of 26 Cents on the Dollar (Bloomberg)

AstraZeneca Plans to Cut 7,300 Jobs (The Wall Street Journal)

Sumco to Cut 1,300 Jobs in Withdrawal From Solar Wafer Business (Bloomberg)

Mitt Romney relying heavily on small group of super-rich donors (The Washington Post)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 02-02-12)

2012-02-02T19:35:00.001-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Applications for unemployment insurance payments dropped by 12,000 to 367,000 in the week ended Jan. 28, according to Labor Department figures issued today in Washington." (Bloomberg)

Jobless Claims Continue To Trend Lower (The Capital Spectator)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (02-01-12)

2012-02-01T21:03:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"I mean, anyone who thinks that the system out there is without risk right now is just totally out of their minds. It's more at risk right now thanks to the credit default swap than we were in 2008, due to the over-the-counter derivatives written on real estate. ... [The risk is] a repeat of 2008, but worse. ... You can not kick this can of credit default swaps much further down the road, because there is a point. The point is zero." -- Precious metals specialist and commodities and foreign currency trader James Sinclair (Youtube)

Jim Sinclair: The Impending Undeclared Default Of 5 Major US Banks (Profitimes) Breaking News Ellis Martin Report with Jim Sinclair (Youtube)

Eurozone collapse 'would trigger a deep recession', IFS warns (This is Money)

Euro zone manufacturing shrinks again in Jan [for sixth straight month]: PMI (Reuters)

This Is Europe's Scariest Chart (ZeroHedge blog)

Bundesbank sinks deeper into debt saving Europe: Germany's Bundesbank has entirely exhausted its stock of private assets and run up a quarter of a trillion euros in liabilities propping up the eurozone system, testing the political limits of EMU solidarity in Germany. (The Telegraph)

Greece Warns It Will Soon Be In "Condition Of Absolute Poverty" (ZeroHedge blog)

As Greece Nears a Big Debt Deal, Investors Now Fret That Portugal Will Ask for the Same (The New York Times)

Rates cut ahead as deflation arrives [in Australia] (The Sydney Morning Herald)

BOJ Yamaguchi warns Japan must get fiscal house in order (Reuters)

CBO REPORT - OMG! (Bruce Krasting blog)

Romney, citing safety net, says he’s ‘not concerned about the very poor’ (The Washington Post) Romney: Poor have safety net: Mitt Romney says he's worried about middle-income Americans and that the "very poor" in the U.S. have a safety net. (CNN)

Romney remains unconcerned about the poor: Mitt Romney made another unforced error by saying he's not concerned about the very poor -- and Democrats are pouncing. Chris [Matthews] talks to Politico's John Harris and Salon's Joan Walsh. (MSNBC's Hardball blog)

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Romney would rank among richest presidents ever [= $190 million to $250 million] (The Associated Press)

California at Risk of Running Out of Money by March (Reuters)

How to Prepare for a Deflationary World (U. S. News & World Report blogs)

Survey: home prices declined in 19 of 20 cities in November; prices back to 2003 levels (The Associated Press) "'We’ve seen home prices take a turn for the worse after showing some signs of a bottom, and we do think that there is more downside from here,' said Ellen Zentner, a senior economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York, who correctly forecast the price decline." (Bloomberg)

After a Delay, MF Global’s Missing Money Is Traced (The New York Times blogs) MF Global's Missing Cash Mostly Accounted For (The Associated Press)

'Gasland' Journalists Arrested At Hearing By Order Of House Republicans (UPDATES) (The Huffington Post blog) Journalists Arrested At Congressional Hearing (5 Min)

AMR wants to cut 13,000 jobs, pensions (Reuters)

Sumco to cut 1,000 jobs, close 2 plants - Nikkei (Reuters)

UMass hospital system to shed up to 900 jobs (The Boston Globe)

Canpages lays off hundreds of employees [fewer than 700] (The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (01-31-12)

2012-01-31T21:36:00.000-08:00

Goldman Sachs Fears Massive European Bank Run (The Street.com)

Euro Zone Jobless Hits Highest Level Since Birth of Euro (Reuters)

As jobless rate soars, Europe rethinks austerity moves (The Globe and Mail of Toronto)

Why the Latest Euro Zone Debt-Crisis Agreement Shows How Europe Just Doesn’t Get It (Time)

Italy’s Jobless Rate Climbed to Eight-Year Highest in December Amid Cuts (Bloomberg)

[US] Home prices drop more than expected in November: S&P (Reuters) Housing Bottom Calls Continue Despite Evidence (The Big Picture blog)

Consumer confidence retreats in January to 61.1 amid worries about income (The Associated Press) Confidence Decline Points to Cooling U.S. Growth (Bloomberg)

New Fund Hopes to Prove Outspoken Analyst’s Thesis (The New York Times blogs)

[British] Army to cut 20,000 jobs two years earlier than expected: General Sir Peter Wall says the army will speed up its redundancy programme by cutting the posts by 2018 (The Guardian)

Nokia Siemens to Cut 2,900 German Jobs [+ 1,200 Jobs in Finland] in Profitability Push (Bloomberg)

Grower to lay off more than 2,100 seasonal workers (The Bakersfield Californian)

Lexmark to cut 625 jobs as earnings fall (The Associated Press)

Tellabs to cut 530 jobs as it narrows loss (The Chicago Tribune)

Daiwa Posts $283 Million Quarterly Loss, Cuts [500] More Jobs (Reuters)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (01-30-12)

2012-01-30T20:28:00.000-08:00

[Donald Tsang speech at World Economic Summit in Davos on Jan. 28, 2012] [CLICK IMAGE TO LAUNCH VIDEO] (Youtube)

On a Knife's Edge: The global economy is balanced precariously between total collapse and salvation. Here are four tipping points toward disaster and four things that could get it back on track. by Mohamed El-Erian (Foreign Policy)

Europe signs up to German-led fiscal pact (Reuters) Germany's budget discipline plan for EU approved (Euronews)

Pressure grows on EU leaders to relax strict austerity: Spain on course for another recession after GDP contracted 0.3% at the end of last year, while the cost of insuring Portuguese debt has hit a new record (The Guardian)

We’re on the brink, warns Greece ahead of EU summit: Greece faces “the spectre of bankruptcy and all the dire consequences that entails”, the Greek prime minister warned last night. [Posted Jan. 29] (The Telegraph)

Portuguese storm gathers as EU leaders fight over Greece: Surging borrowing costs in Portugal have raised the spectre of a second full-fledged contagion crisis in the eurozone, eclipsing the latest efforts by European Union leaders in Brussels to agree on Europe's bail-out machinery and a strategy for Greece. (The Telegraph) From Greece To Portugal, Fear Spreading; Portuguese Bond Yields Spike (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Markets push Portugal towards [situation like that of] bond pariah Greece (Reuters)

Spain seen heading for recession as economy shrinks (Reuters) Spain’s economy contracted by 0.3 percent in fourth quarter, edging toward new recession (The Associated Press)

Italian Business Confidence Falls to 2-Year Low on Economic Woes (Bloomberg)

France cuts 2012 growth forecast (Agence France-Presse)

Bank's [= Bank of England's] Tucker says banks must reclaim proper role - report (Reuters)

The Baltic Dry Meltdown Continues (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Consumer Spending in U.S. Stalls (Bloomberg)

Robert Shiller: A Housing Bottom? What Are They Thinking? (The Daily Ticker)

Freddie Mac Bets Against American Homeowners (ProPublica) Report Prompts Calls To End Freddie Mac's Conflict Of Interest (National Public Radio blogs)

Anxiety Mounts Over Maturing Real Estate Loans (The New York Times)

Fed Survey: Euro Crisis Has Hurt U.S. Loans (The Wall Street Journal)

Goldman Sachs Among Banks Lobbying to Exempt Half of Swaps From Dodd-Frank (Bloomberg)

MF Global client money feared gone (The Wall Street Journal/Newscore) MF Global: A Despicable State of Affairs (Jesse's Café Américain blog)

John Reed on Big Banks' Power and Influence (Bill Moyers & Company)

John Reed on Big Banks' Power and Influence from BillMoyers.com on Vimeo.

Has Petroleum Production Peaked, Ending the Era of Easy Oil?: A new analysis concludes that easily extracted oil peaked in 2005, suggesting that dirtier fossil fuels will be burned and energy prices will rise (The Scientific American)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (01-29-12)

2012-01-29T19:34:00.000-08:00

ROUBINI: Advanced Economies Face A U-Shaped Recovery (The Business Insider)

Core Euro Area Banks Still Very Exposed to Contagion from a Greek Exit (EconoMonitor)

Nations Risk Backsliding on Credit Rules (The Wall Street Journal)

E.U. Leaders Set to Admit Austerity Is Not Enough (The New York Times)

Germany resists calls to give more to $657B eurozone bailout (USAToday)

Resistance to eurozone bailout boost 'scandalous': Former European Commission chief Delors (Agence France-Presse)

Did Germany sow the seeds of the eurozone debt crisis? (The BBC)

Mario Draghi, the Latin Bloc’s monetarist avenger: The eurozone money supply is contracting at an accelerating pace on all fronts. The broad M3 gauge has fallen for the last three months in a row. A slump is already baked in the pie. (The Telegraph)

Greeks reject 'impossible' German plan for budget veto (The BBC)

Restructure of Ireland's [and Spain's] bank debt 'probable' [plus, it is "needed" in Greece and Portugal, all according to Harvard professor of economics Kenneth Rogoff] (The Irish Times)

Japanese Debt Concerns Rise: Default-Insurance Costs Climb as Raters Weigh Downgrades; 'Absurdly Unsustainable' (The Wall Street Journal)

Destructive Austerity, USA (The New York Times blogs)

U.S. Banks Tally Their Exposure to Europe’s Debt Maelstrom (The New York Times blogs)

Smallest U.S. cattle herd in 60 years may raise beef prices (Bloomberg)

Penn. town blames contaminated water on fracking: Residents of Dimock, Penn., have lived with contaminated water wells for more than three years, and they blame the contamination on fracking for natural gas. Tony Guida reports on the tiny town's struggle to get clean water. (CBSNews)

A modern Pecora Commission could right Wall Street wrongs by Barry Ritholtz (The Washington Post)

John Mauldin: It's Time To Make The Hard Decisions (Chris Martenson . com)

Economic collapse in the Western nations - On the Edge with Max Keiser - 01-27-2012 (Press TV)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (01-28-12)

2012-01-28T18:44:00.000-08:00

Quotes of the Day:

“I’ve never been as scared as now about the world. ... We do not know how deep this hole would be when the whole thing implodes on us.” -- Donald Tsang, chief executive of Hong Kong, speaking at Davos. (The New York Times)

"You need decisive action, you need overkill. You need to inspire confidence. ... That confidence must come from the decisive action of governments working together and doing it quickly. ... Two months ago in Greece you can do with 20 per cent haircut. Now even 50 per cent is not easy, maybe 70 per cent is needed. So do it quickly. You need resolution and you need decisiveness." -- Donald Tsang, chief executive of Hong Kong, speaking at Davos. (Agence France Presse)

European austerity measures could be 'grave' for world: Former Canadian finance minister issues warning at World Economic Forum (The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation)

Davos Leaders Urge Europe to Fix Crisis Risking World Economy (Bloomberg) At World Economic Forum, Fear of Global Contagion Dominates (The Huffington Post)

Most of the World Wants More Bank Regulation (The Big Picture blog)

The Report That Will Blow Up The Eurozone (The Automatic Earth blog)

Roubini Says Eurozone ‘Wreck’ May Force Greece Out in Year (Bloomberg)

Ackermann Says Greek Default Would Be ‘Playing With Fire' (Bloomberg)

Greek troika sees second bailout up to 145 bln euros - report (Reuters)

In New High, Spain's Jobless Rate Nears 23% (The Wall Street Journal)

At last, a politician who dares to admit that we need 'full disclosure' from banks: It's easy to criticise Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor and erstwhile runaway leader in the Republican nomination race has had a bad two weeks. (The Telegraph)

Taxpayers owed $132.9 billion from GM, others (USAToday)

Number of the Week: Dismal New Home Sales in 2011 (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 958 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

Christus to cut 700 jobs in Houston (The Houston Chronicle)

Les jeux sont faits - intervista a Nicole Foss - INGLESE SENZA SOTTOTITOLI (Youtube)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (01-27-12)

2012-01-27T19:37:00.000-08:00

ECB Chief Says Bank Helped Avert Disaster (The Wall Street Journal)

Greek Debt Wrangle May Pull Default Trigger (Bloomberg) What we worry about when we worry about Greek debt (The Associated Press)

Germany wants Greece to give up budget control (Reuters)

Portuguese Borrowing Costs Hit New Record (The Wall Street Journal) Investors cue up Portugal as the next Greece (Reuters)

Fitch cuts Italy, Spain, other euro zone ratings (Reuters) Greek debt deal hit by eurozone ratings downgrades: Hopes of a Greek debt deal were undermined on Friday night after Fitch downgraded the ratings of five eurozone countries, including Italy and Spain. (The Telegraph)

Spain demands new 'realism' from EU over austerity (The Guardian)

The European fallacy of Ireland and the Baltics (The Telegraph blogs) The Baltic states and Ireland are not a model for Italy and Spain (Centre for European Reform blog)

[US] Economy Grows at 2.8% Clip, but Slowdown Likely Ahead (Reuters)

US Postal Service 'Unsustainable' Situation, Leader Says (CNBC)

Federal Mortgage Insurer [= Federal Housing Authority or FHA] Headed Toward Collapse (The Epoch Times)

P&G to Cut 1,600 Jobs, Bank on Digital for Long-term Savings (Ad Age)

ArcelorMittal cuts production, jobs in east Europe [630 in the Czech Republic, plus 1,000 jobs "will be affected" in Poland] (Reuters)

Nearly 600 Employees At ConocoPhillips Refinery Losing Their Jobs (CBS Philly)

Hundreds of Calif prison employees [= 545] get layoff notices amid continued drop in inmate population (The Associated Press)

Serco looks to cut at least 500 [UK] jobs (Reuters)

Regulators close banks in Tennessee, Florida, Minnesota, making 7 bank failures in 2012 (The Associated Press)

Tennessee Commerce Bank of Franklin TN had a troubled assets ratio of 266.9%. (BankTracker) [Celebrity tour of Franklin:] Miley Cyrus goes Back Home to Tennessee [with her parents] (Youtube)

First Guaranty Bank and Trust Company of Jacksonville of Jacksonville FL had a troubled assets ratio of 522.6%. (BankTracker)

Patriot Bank Minnesota of Forest Lake MN had a troubled assets ratio of 272.6%. (BankTracker)

BankEast of Knoxville TN had a troubled assets ratio of 260.5%. (BankTracker)

Bill Moyers on Occupy Wall Street (Moyers & Company)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (01-26-12)

2012-01-26T21:28:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"... what the Fed is doing is setting the stage for the biggest, and finally last, credit bubble in the history of the world." -- Blogger Tyler Durden (ZeroHedge blog)

EU's Juncker: We Must Do Everything To Avoid A Greek Default - Report (Dow Jones Newswires) Euro Group’s Juncker Says Greek Default Would Lead to Contagion (Bloomberg) Juncker : «Il faut à tout prix éviter un défaut de la Grèce» -- "You can not ask Germany to do everything all by itself. Its room for maneuver is not as great as people say." (Le Figaro)

Why Europe’s crisis can’t be averted (Reuters blogs)

More pain awaits euro zone periphery [Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Ireland] (Reuters)

Austerity 'Does Not Deliver': HSBC Chief Economist (CNBC)

Debt-stricken euro citizens must back austerity or governments will struggle, EU leaders say (The Associated Press)

Europe searches for mythical "jobs and growth" formula (Reuters)

Banks [in Europe] Face Bind Over Cash Pile (The Wall Street Journal)

Banks Hoarding ECB Cash to Double Company Defaults: Euro Credit (Bloomberg)

EU Red-Flags 'Volcker': Planned U.S. Rule on Banks' Bets Is Seen as Threat to Worsen Debt Crisis (The Wall Street Journal)

Freighter Oversupply [Globally] Weighs on Shipowners and Banks (The New York Times)

British Economy Now Doing Worse Than During the Great Depression (Slate blogs) The British Economy Is Now Doing Worse Than In The Great Depression (Seeking Alpha blog) The Greater Depression by Paul Krugman (The New York Times blogs) Vote of no confidence has crushed Britain's economic recovery: Fourth-quarter GDP figures will show that Britain is in a Japanese-style depression lasting well beyond the usual cycle of a recession (The Guardian)

Chancellor George Osborne to unveil new powers to rein in the banks: The Treasury will on Friday publish plans for a radical overhaul of financial regulation that will hand the Chancellor new powers to take charge in a crisis, rein in the might of the Bank of England, and provide extra protection for consumers. (The Telegraph)

More public money likely for Greek bailout: EU's Rehn (Reuters)

For Greece, the Outlook Is Still Grim (The New York Times) What to do about Greece: Its insolvent economy needs a bigger debt reduction. A precipitous exit from the euro would be a disaster (The Economist)

Investors fear mounting losses in Portugal as second rescue looms: Portugal is fighting a losing battle to contain its public debt and may be forced to impose haircuts of up to 50pc on private creditors, according to a top German institute. (The Telegraph)

Forget Greece; it’s Portugal that’ll destroy euro: One default is an accident; two is a systemic crisis (Marketwatch) Why Portugal Might Be The Real Trigger That Causes The Eurozone To Spiral Out Of Control (The Business Insider)

Italian Consumer Confidence Stays at Lowest Level for 16 Years in January (Bloomberg)

China’s very mysterious data (The Telegraph blogs)

Japan's rising financing risks: James Saft (Reuters)

Japan prices fall [for third consecutive month], mild deflation to persist (Reuters)

Democratic-controlled Senate declines to block Obama debt request (The Associated Press) Debt ceiling increase allowed by Senate (Politico)

The New Meme: 2013 Is When We're Really Screwed (The Business Insider)

US new-home sales fell in December to make 2011 worst sales year on record (The Associated Press)

New initiative will coordinate probes of mortgage meltdown: A team of attorneys, agents and analysts will try to speed up existing federal and state probes and launch new ones into the highly risky mortgage-backed securities that fell apart. (The Los Angeles Times) A Mortgage Investigation [editorial] (The New York Times)

Why All the Robo-signing?: Shedding Light on the Shadow Banking System by Ellen Hodgson Brown -- "Not only has the system destroyed county title records, but it is highly vulnerable to bank runs and systemic collapse." (Dissident Voice)

Foreclosures keep pushing house prices lower (MSNBC)

Old mortgages rise from the dead, haunt homeowners (Reuters)

Why Home Prices Have Much Further To Fall (Streettalk Live) Glaeser: Don’t Count on Housing Market to Lead Recovery (Bloomberg)

Enforce Dodd-Frank: Break Up Bank of America (The Nation blogs) Activists Call for Breakup of Bank of America (The New York Times blogs)

Bank of America Settlements Impede Fraud Probe, Arizona Says (Bloomberg)

CT budget deficit doubles in 2 days (WTNH)

Warren Buffett's Secretary Likely Makes Between $200,000 And $500,000/Year (Forbes)

20,000 Marines to be cut, Pentagon announces (Marine Corps Times) Budgeting for a new military vision (CNN blogs)

NEC to Cut 10,000 Jobs on Forecast of Third Loss in 4 Years (Bloomberg) Japan's NEC to slash 10,000 jobs, sees huge net loss (Reuters)

[UK's] Ministry of Defence to cut further 3,000 civilian jobs: Defence secretary will be forced to admit MoD has miscalculated how many staff it can afford, Guardian learns (The Guardian)

Briggs & Stratton shutting plants, to cut 767 jobs (The Associated Press)

Re-Living The Fall Of Rome (The Golden Truth blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-26-12)

2012-01-26T07:08:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000, after a nearly four-year low the previous week." (The Associated Press)

Weekly Jobless Claims Climb (Reuters)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (01-25-12)

2012-01-25T22:07:00.000-08:00

World Bank’s action on Europe reflects fear of another global meltdown (The Washington Post)

George Soros on CNBC: More Needed to Safeguard Euro Zone (CNBC)

Merkel rejects calls for boost to euro bailout fund (The Associated Press)

Merkel demands closer EU links to avoid financial meltdown (The Daily Mail)

Soros: Germany Risks Pushing Europe Into Deflationary Debt Sprial (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Euro Breakup Would Cause Global ‘Meltdown,’ George Soros Tells Newsweek (Bloomberg)

Deflation risk up in some G20 states: IMF (Reuters)

Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from financial meltdown: German chancellor speaks candidly to the Guardian and five other leading European newspapers as part of a unique collaboration to explore the EU's predicament (The Guardian)

Portugal Debt Insurance Costs Hit Record As Yields Rise (Dow Jones Newswires) Portugal debt insurance cost hits record (Marketwatch)

UK heading for first double-dip recession since 1975: Britain is heading for its first double-dip recession in 37 years after the economy slumped in the final quarter of 2011 and officials warned of a new threat to jobs. (The Telegraph) Double-dip looms as slump hits economy: Manufacturing's worst quarter since early 2009 renews fears of a return to recession (The Independent)

IMF Warns Hungary of Debt-Repayment Risk If Euro Crisis Worsens (Bloomberg)

Japan's first trade deficit since 1980 raises debt doubts (Reuters) Japan reports first trade deficit in 32 years after tsunami: Trade figures reveal collapse in sales to Europe, as cost of oil gas and yen rise (The Guardian)

President Obama's State of the Union: Ten Skirted Issues (Nomi Prins's blog) The Belated Mortgage Fraud/Crisis Investigation (The Big Picture blog)

Consumer group to feds: Break up Bank of America (CBS MoneyWatch) Consumer group to regulators: Break up Bank of America (The Hill blogs)

MF Global Clients May Lose in $700 Million Bankruptcy Fight (Bloomberg)

Stanford Told ‘Lie After Lie’ to Investors, U.S. Prosecutor Says (Bloomberg) Ex-Stanford employee tells jurors he saw problems (The Associated Press)

Abbott cuts 700 jobs primarily in manufacturing (Marketwatch)

We've hit "peak oil"; now comes permanent price volatility (ArsTecnica)

My Horrific Experiences With Sony Customer Support (Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (01-24-12)

2012-01-24T19:52:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"The best-case scenario is a deflationary environment. The worst-case scenario is a collapse of the financial system." -- Financier George Soros in an interview with Newsweek (The Telegraph)

IMF warns of another great depression [AUDIO @ WEBSITE] (The Australian Broadcasting Commission)

IMF Warns Debt-Crisis Inaction May Mean Steep EU Recession (Dow Jones Newswires) IMF Cuts Growth Forecast; Sees Recession (Bloomberg) IMF Cuts Global Growth Estimates (The Wall Street Journal) IMF slashes world growth forecast (Agence France Presse) Global Recovery Stalls, Downside Risks Intensify (The International Monetary Fund)

Euro Crisis in 'Perilous New Phase': IMF (CNBC) I.M.F. Trims Estimates for Global Growth on ‘Sharply Escalating’ Risks in Europe (The New York Times) When Downside Scenarios for the Economy Play Out (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Austerity Could Again Sow Seeds of Extremism in Europe (The New York Times blogs)

Global bosses are gloomy about the economic future (The BBC)

EU ratchets up pressure with Greek default threat: European Union officials have stepped up pressure on Greece and its creditor banks in a complex game of three-way brinkmanship, signalling that they will allow a Greek default to run its course unless both sides accept more pain. (The Telegraph)

The Greek debt talks fall apart (Reuters blogs)

Greece Is Facing Downgrade To 'Selective Default': S&P (Reuters)

Greek Economy on Track to Implode: Hanke (Bloomberg) [And even the] IMF Says Reducing Greek Debt Alone Not Enough to Revive [Its] Economy (Bloomberg)

Time to Worry About Portugal Again (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Leaders of Spain, Portugal demand quick decision on new Greek bailout, vow austerity (The Associated Press)

UK at risk as IMF warns of global slump: World growth will slump to levels bordering on stagnation and the whole eurozone will be plunged into severe recession if the crisis in Europe intensifies, the International Monetary Fund has warned. (The Telegraph)

Romanians rally, demand PM's resignation (Reuters) Eastern EU States Under Pressure Amid Social Unrest (The Voice of America)

What is the Strait of Hormuz? Can Iran shut off access to oil? (The Los Angeles Times blogs)

IMF Warns EU Debt Crisis Could Hit U.S. Banks, Cause Funding Strains (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

'There will be riots on streets of America': George Soros predicts class war in U.S. as euro triggers collapse of global economy (The Daily Mail)

Stop the Madness: National Debt Threatens our Prosperity by Rep. Doug Lamborn (R) of Colorado (The Heritage Foundation blogs) In 2012, real solutions needed to combat the national debt by former Rep. Martin Russo (D) of Illinois (The Hill blogs)

Another Bad Bank/Housing Deal Coming Our Way (The Big Picture blog)

Obama to Use Pension Funds of Ordinary Americans to Pay for Bank Mortgage “Settlement” by Yves Smith (Common Dreams)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (01-23-12)

2012-01-23T20:51:00.000-08:00

'Festering' financial wounds could lead to depression [AUDIO @ WEBSITE] (The Australian Broadcasting Commission) Lagarde: World Economy Risks Depression-Era Collapse In Demand (Dow Jones Newswires) Visión Siete: El FMI redujo sus estimaciones de crecimiento global [LAGARGE SPEAKS IN ENGLISH IN THIS CLIP] (TVPublicaArgentina)

EU faces '1930s moment' unless bigger [bailout] fund is agreed (The Irish Times) IMF’s Lagarde Sounds Alarm Over Europe (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Europe should boost bailout fund, consider euro bonds: Lagarde (Reuters) IMF head wants 'larger firewall' against eurozone crisis (Agence France-Presse)

Lagarde to Europe: Boost Growth and Protections: Christine Lagarde, the head of the International Monetary Fund says Europe's stronger economies should do more to boost growth and beef up the defenses against the continent's debt crisis. (The Associated Press)

European Banks May Deepen Their Dependence on Unlimited Central Bank Loans (Bloomberg)

Eight Leading Economists Sound Off on Europe's Fiscal Woes: As economic contagion continues in Europe, and with the future of the euro imperiled, Newsweek asked eight economists to describe the origin of the problem facing the single currency and what would happen if the euro were abolished. (Newsweek)

Euro-Area Finance Ministers Push For Lower Greek Debt Cost (Dow Jones Newswires) Europe Steps Up Pressure on Greece (The New York Times) Euro zone ministers reject private bondholders' Greece offer (Reuters)

Germany, France press for swift Greek debt deal (EuroNews)

Hard bargaining with Greece has consequences for the whole world [editorial] (The Washington Post)

Paris and Berlin seek to dilute bank rules (The Financial Times)

Spanish central bank warns of double dip recession: The Spanish economy shrank by 0.3pc in the fourth quarter of 2011, the country's central bank said, reflecting falling domestic demand and slowing exports. (The Telegraph) Spanish central bank predicts big drop in economy: Spain central bank predicts 1.5 percent fall in Spanish economy and jobs misery to continue (The Associated Press)

Fears Mount That Portugal Will Need a Second Bailout (The Wall Street Journal)

[Ireland's] Bailout chiefs order banks to slash 2,500 workers: They tell the Government cuts must be made immediately to speed revamp (The Irish Independent)

UK 'has second-highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the world' [second only to Japan] (ThinkMoney)

BOE’s Posen: U.K. Unemployment to Rise as Unproductive Sectors Shed Jobs (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Small business owners [in the UK are] 'ready to give up and become employees again' in bleak economic state (The Daily Mail)

Japan manufacturers brace for euro zone breakup: Reuters poll (Reuters)

Goldman Says U.S. Data Look Better Than They Are: Economy (Bloomberg)

Fewer U.S. Companies Plan to Boost Hiring in 2012, Survey Shows (Bloomberg)

George Soros on the Coming U.S. Class War: The situation is about as serious and difficult as I've experienced in my career.' (Newsweek)

Fannie, Freddie writedowns too costly: regulator (Reuters)

State Bank Regulators More Lenient Than Federal Counterparts (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

US consumers making progress in paring debt (CBS MoneyWatch) Is America Really De-Leveraging? (The Golden Truth blog)

J.C. Penney to Cut Thousands of Jobs as Part of Overhaul (FoxBusiness)

David Stockman on Crony Capitalism -- "We need not only a reinstitution of Glass-Steagal, but even a more serious limitation on banks -- [a provision that says] if you're a bank and you want to have deposit insurance (which ultimately, you know, is backed up by the tax payer). if you're a bank and you want to have access to the so-called discount window of the Fed (the emergency lending), then you can't be in trading at all. ... If they're too big to fail, they're too big to exist. And let's start right with that proposition!" (Moyers & Company) (full transcript @ Moyers & Company) (Video @ Vimeo)

David Stockman on Crony Capitalism from BillMoyers.com on Vimeo.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (01-22-12)

2012-01-22T19:38:00.000-08:00

Lost decade of growth for the West (Reuters)

Europe Debt Crisis Still Likely to End Badly: Simon Johnson (Bloomberg)

Staring into the Abyss -- [Says John Mauldin:] "When Europe approaches the edge of the Abyss and looks over, the rest of the world gets to take a look, too. We can all be taken to the edge and over" (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Euro Policy Makers Angle for Long-Term Crisis Solution [in tomorrow's meeting of finance ministers] (Bloomberg)

Greece's creditors leave Athens ["without a deal on a debt swap plan that is vital to avert a chaotic default"], talks to continue (Reuters) IIF says creditors at limits of "voluntary" Greek deal (Reuters) Greece and creditors set to miss deadline for bailout contribution (The Irish Times) Greek Talks Hit a Snag Over Rates (The New York Times) Eurozone finmins to rule on glacial Greek debt talks (Reuters) The Latest Solution For Europe Solves Absolutely Nothing (The Automatic Earth blog)

Italy and Spain call for eurozone rescue fund booster: Political leaders in Italy and Spain have called for a massive boost to the EU rescue fund and a blast of monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank (ECB), putting them on a collision course with Germany over the handling of the eurozone crisis. (The Telegraph) Spain Calls For Bigger Bailout Fund, More ECB Action, Pais Says (Bloomberg) Mario Monti calls for doubling of eurozone bail-out fund: Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has called for the eurozone to double the size of the region's permanent bail-out fund to help stricken states. (The Telegraph) Super Mario’s bank rescue no lifesaver for a dying Greece (The Globe and Mail of Toronto)

Germany Rejects Bigger Bailout (The Wall Street Journal)

Irish minister highlights ECB warning on Anglo debt (Reuters)

Could Britain Be Facing A 'Lost Decade'? (SkyNews)

U.S. economy unlikely to [EVER] fully recover: [Bank of Canada governor Mark] Carney (PostMedia News)

Debt sell-off stokes deflation fears (FundWeb)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (01-21-12)

2012-01-21T17:18:00.000-08:00

US, Europe Face More Ratings Cuts in Coming Years (CNBC)

Greece debt swap talks drag into weekend (Reuters) Greek debt deal snags on interest rate: report (Marketwatch) Irish finance minister slams bank role in Greece talks (Agence France-Presse)

Italy wants EU bailout fund doubled - German magazine (Reuters) Monti wirbt für den Billionen-Schirm (Spiegel Online)

Obama Says [State of the Union] Address Will Be ‘Blueprint’ for Joint Action (ABCNews blogs)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 963 Institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

Corzine Sued for RICO Violation by MF Global Customers (Bloomberg)

Top Justice officials connected to mortgage banks (Reuters) Is This Why They Won’t Prosecute? Top Justice Officials Represented Big Banks, Freddie, Fannie and Mers (Washington's Blog)

Reckless Endangerment: A Wall Street-Washington Incestuous Legacy and A MUST READ (The Business Insider)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (01-20-12)

2012-01-20T19:54:00.000-08:00

European banks prepare for worst, hoard cash (Reuters)

Debt ‘Round the World (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

Bailouts only buy time for eurozone: German minister -- "'The debt economy itself has reached its limits,' he told the Brookings Institution think-tank in Washington." (Agence France-Presse) [Furthermore ...] Euro-Area Cuts Alone Won’t End Crisis, Westerwelle Says (Bloomberg)

Has Portugal's debt default clock begun to tick? (Reuters) Portugal falls victim to Greece’s debt swap ordeal (Reuters blogs)

Sovereign bond pile main concern for Italy banks (Reuters)

2,700 More Layoffs, New Leaders For Philly Schools (MyFoxPhilly) "In plainer, starker terms than it had ever used before, the School Reform Commission laid out the district's financial woes to the public in a meeting Thursday night." (The Philadelphia Inquirer)

Banks closed in Ga, Fla, Pa; first failures of '12 (The Associated Press)

Central Florida State Bank of Belleview FL had a troubled assets ratio of 479.5%. (BankTracker)

The First State Bank of Stockbridge GA had a troubled assets ratio of 950.5%. (BankTracker)

American Eagle Savings Bank of Boothwyn PA had a troubled assets ratio of 13.7%. (BankTracker)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (01-19-12)

2012-01-19T18:39:00.000-08:00

Eurozone 'back in recession this year': IMF poised to forecast 0.5 per cent contraction and pass the hat for more funds from governments (The Independent) IMF slashes global forecast on eurozone crisis, with drastic falls in Italy and Spain: The International Monetary Fund has slashed its global growth forecast for this year and exhorted the European Central Bank to boost liquidity to stave off a deeper eurozone crisis. (The Telegraph)

Momentum to drain from world economy in 2012: poll (Reuters)

The European Crisis Deepens by Peter Boone and Simon Johnson (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Fitch Sees 1-2 Notch Downgrade for Some Euro States (Reuters)

Greek Debt Agreement Falls Far Short of What’s Needed to Save Euro (Bloomberg)

Portugal to need "debt haircut" as economy tips into Grecian downward spiral: Portugal's borrowing costs have jumped to record highs and are tracking the moves seen in the culminating phase of Greece's debt crisis, dashing hopes that the country will be able to stave off contagion by embracing drastic austerity. (The Telegraph)

Italy faces lengthy recession, to miss deficit goal (Reuters)

Italian banks [led by Unicredit] are biggest users of special three-year ECB funding (The Irish Times)

The horrifying graph that shows why Britain's debt addiction now equals FIVE TIMES national GDP and why we [in the UK] face a decade of austerity (The Daily Mail)

[US] INFLATION UPDATE – DISINFLATION CONTINUES…. (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Housing: Record Low Total Completions in 2011 (Calculated Risk blog)

Treasury dips into pension funds to avoid debt (Reuters)

Addressing the Budget Deficit: The Next President Must Solve the U.S. Deficit Crisis -- "America is on the edge of a cliff." (The Brookings Institution)

Why it's time to break up the 'too big to fail' banks: Customers would benefit, the U.S. government would benefit, and - believe it or not - the big banks themselves would do better by Sheila Bair, former chair of the FDIC and former member of the Basel Committee (Fortune)

All Eyes on Gingrich in Wake of His Call for a Commission on the Gold Standard (The New York Sun)

Ecolab to cut 500 jobs (The Minneapolis Star-Tribune)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-19-12)

2012-01-19T09:09:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008." (The Associated Press)

Jobless Claims Decline to Lowest Level Since 2008 (The Wall Street Journal)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (01-18-12)

2012-01-18T20:55:00.000-08:00

World Bank fears Europe's crisis could set off deeper global slump than Lehman collapse: The World Bank has slashed its global growth forecast and told developing nations to prepare for the worst, warning that Europe’s debt crisis could trigger an even deeper slump than the post-Lehman collapse three years ago. (The Telegraph) World Bank Warns of Global Recession (The International Business Times) Global Economic Prospects 2012 (The World Bank) Grim growth forecast from World Bank (EuroNews)

Euro Group's Juncker: On Brink Of Recession, Albeit 'Technical' (Dow Jones Newswires)

IMF Seeks $500B Boost to Lending Resources (Bloomberg)

Is the Sovereign Debt Bubble Bursting? (CNBC)

Moody’s: Here are the U.S. Banks Most Exposed to Euro Crisis (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Greece in new push to avoid default (Al Jazeera)

This time, the Greek negotiations have to succeed -- "If the talks with the banks fail ... this orderly partial default (that is what it is after all) becomes disorderly." (CNN blogs)

Greek debt default possible without market mayhem (Reuters)

The euro is pushing Italy into depression (The Telegraph blogs)

States once again worried about budget fights (Reuters)

One Million Homeowners May Get Mortgage Writedowns (Reuters)

No Solution (Financial Armageddon) [summarizes the article:] On Borrowed Time: Heavy debt loads slow the U.S. economy now and pose threat to the future. (Barron's)

Takeda to Cut 2,800 Jobs in Europe, U.S. (The Wall Street Journal)

Oakland gives layoff notices to 2,500 city workers (The Associated Press)

Oreo, Oscar Mayer owner Kraft Foods to cut 1,600 jobs (The Los Angeles Times)

BNY Mellon’s profit fell 26 percent; 900 jobs cut, including 100 in Pittsburgh (Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

Northern Trust to cut 700 jobs (The Chicago Tribune)

Lloyds to Eliminate 700 U.K. Jobs as Part of Cost Control Plan (Bloomberg)

Sandvik to cut 500 jobs, take $73M charge (Marketwatch)

Revisiting the Great Depression: The role of the welfare state in today’s economic crisis recalls the part played by the gold standard in the calamitous 1930s by Robert J. Samuelson (The Wilson Quarterly)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (01-17-12)

2012-01-17T18:45:00.000-08:00

UN sees fall in global GDP per capita in 2012 (Reuters) European debt crisis, high unemployment threaten to slow down global economy – UN (UN News Centre)

Stiglitz says European austerity plans are a 'suicide pact': European governments have signed a "suicide pact" by imposing fiscal austerity plans that will collapse their economies, Joseph Stiglitz, the liberal economist, has warned. (The Telegraph)

How to Create a Depression by Martin Feldstein (Project Syndicate)

Will debt downgrades doom the eurozone recovery?: Standard & Poor's docks the credit ratings of France, Spain, Italy — and even the rescue fund charged with bailing out struggling European nations (This Week)

Why Does European Debt Matter? (Forbes)

Eastern Europe May Need Funding Deal to Avert Credit Drought (Bloomberg)

Greece prepares to give way to banks to secure debt deal: Greek government and international officials have signalled they will yield to the demands of banks and hedge funds in order to secure a bond deal before the end of the week. (The Telegraph) Greece Running Out of Time as Debt Talks Stumble: Euro Credit (Bloomberg) Greece in Race Against Time to Avoid Default (The Associated Press) Greece, creditors strive to avoid costly default (Reuters) Greece lurches closer to collapse: Greece could finally default in March when massive bond payments are due. (The Christian Science Monitor)

Fitch says Greece to default, believes will be orderly (Reuters) Greece Is Insolvent, Will Default on Debt: Fitch (Bloomberg)

Bank of Italy forecasts sharper recession in 2012 (Agence France-Presse)

One-third of Italians want to return to the lira as confidence in the eurozone plummets and debt-ridden Greece holds crisis talks with IMF (The Daily Mail)

Portugal's borrowing costs soar as France passes first bond auction test: Portugal's borrowing costs jumped to record highs on Monday, as investors had their first chance to react to a series of downgrades by Standard and Poor's (S&P) that saw the country relegated to "junk". (The Telegraph)

Portugal moves into default territory (The Financial Times)

Bank of England governor Sir Mervyn King accuses euro leaders of debt failure (This is Money)

By the end of 2012 we [in the UK] may be worrying about deflation not inflation: With inflation at 4.2% prices are still increasing faster than wages and eating into consumer spending power – but the squeeze is starting to ease (The Guardian blogs)

Hungary faces ruin as EU loses patience: The European Commission has launched legal action against Hungary's Fidesz government for violations of European Union treaty law and erosion of democracy, marking a dramatic escalation in the war of words with the EU's enfant terrible. (The Telegraph)

PM warns violence [sparked by austerity measures] could destabilize Romania (The Associated Press)

Nearly Half of U.S Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefits (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

US recovery at risk as Americans raid savings, borrow again (Reuters)

Citigroup earnings unexpectedly decline 11%; 5,000 jobs to be cut: Q4 net income $1.16 bn vs $1.31 bn a year earlier; earnings per share 38 cents vs Street view 49 cents (Bloomberg) Being international isn't sexy anymore for Citi (The Associated Press)

MoD [= UK Ministry of Defence] announces details of 4,200 job cuts (The BBC) "one of the largest single culls in decades" (The Sun)

Heidelberg to shed up to 2,000 jobs to cut costs (Reuters)

Kraft Foods to Cut 1,600 Jobs Ahead of Plan to Split in Two (Bloomberg)

Siemens Osram lighting unit to cut [850] jobs in Germany (Marketwatch)

Premier Foods cuts 600 jobs as financing deal gels (Reuters)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (01-16-12)

2012-01-16T19:44:00.000-08:00

IMF executive warns of eurozone debt crisis 'spiral' [ that could drag the world economy into "catastrophe"] (Agence France-Presse)

Europe Bank Chief Warns Crisis 'Very Grave': Mario Draghi, Before European Parliament, Says Nations Must Move on Both Growth and Austerity (The Wall Street Journal)

Central bank independence at risk from financial crisis, warns UBS: The potential for losses from the banking system to wipe out all or much of the capital of central banks could see the end of independence for monetary authorities, according to UBS. (The Telegraph)

S&P downgrades euro zone's EFSF bailout fund (Reuters)

EU leaders are already backtracking on the agreement of 5 weeks ago (Credit Writedowns blog)

S&P expects Greece to default soon (Reuters) Pimco’s Gross Says Greece to Default Following Downgrades (Bloomberg) 46 Days to Avoid Greek Default (The Wall Street Journal blogs) Greek default fears grow as talks stall (Reuters)

Italy's Monti calls for help on borrowing - FT (Reuters)

Linde CEO says Germany should mull euro exit - paper (Reuters)

Germany rejects rescue fund boost, Greece under pressure (Reuters)

Romanian PM warns protesters on fifth day (Reuters)

24 million customer accounts hacked at Zappos (Reuters) Hacked Zappos Customers: Beware Phishing Scams (Mashable) Zappos Hacked: What You Need to Know (PCWorld)

Cruel Winter: What NYC Homeless Must Do to Survive (The International Business Times)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (01-15-12)

2012-01-15T20:13:00.000-08:00

Euro debt downgrades spark bailout debate (Agence France-Presse)

Eurozone banks’ ECB borrowing set to soar: Eurozone lenders' borrowing of long-term central bank funds is expected to more than double to over €1 trillion (£828bn) next month when struggling banks will be handed another lifeline by European authorities. (The Telegraph)

Zulauf: The Key To 2012 & The Coming Banking Bust (Pragmatic Capitalism)

Don't blame the ratings agencies for the eurozone turmoil: Europe and the eurozone are strangling themselves with a toxic mixture of austerity and a structurally flawed financial system (The Guardian)

As Reforms Flag in Greece, Europe Aims to Limit Damage (The New York Times)

Greek Debt Swap Faces ‘Critical’ Phase as Talks Resume This Week (Bloomberg)

Greece More Worrisome Than Downgrades (The Wall Street Journal)

Romania’s government calls crisis meeting over violent protests against austerity (The Associated Press) Protesters gather for fourth straight day in Romania (CNN)

UK in recession again as recovery is 'paralysed' by the European debt crisis, says economic forecaster (The Daily Mail)

Britain braced for meltdown in the eurozone, says Hague as he compares crisis to stricken Italian cruise ship (The Daily Mail)

BOJ Shirakawa:Europe debt woes remain biggest risk (Reuters)

The US Government Is Bankrupt (Casey Research)

Refusing To Take Yes For An Answer On Bank Reform by Simon Johnson (Baseline Scenario blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (01-14-12)

2012-01-14T20:24:00.000-08:00

Euro zone economy could contract by 1.5 pct/GDP - S&P [= Eurozone could enter a recession] (Reuters)

Impact on EFSF from euro zone downgrades being assessed - S&P (Reuters)

Eurozone has long road ahead: Germany (Al Jazeera)

European Leaders Use Debt Downgrades to Argue for Austerity, and for Stimulus (The New York Times)

Merkel Says Downgrades Show Euro Heads Must Redouble Efforts (Bloomberg) Merkel Vows Faster Eurozone Reforms After Downgrades (Reuters)

Greek debt talks break down, country heads for March default (The Sunday Times of London) Greece gets closer to brink of bankruptcy: Fears are mounting that Greece could be the first European country to default on its debt in 60 years, as the country gears up to salvage collapsed talks over bond repayments on Wednesday. (The Telegraph) Debt bailout fears over deadlock on Greek default (Agence France-Presse)

S&P downgrade of Italy "problematic": ECB's Nowotny (Reuters)

Britain ‘already in double dip recession’ (Scotland on Sunday) 'We have already plunged into the second recession', Item Club warns (This is Money)

Spain jobless figure hit 'astronomical' 5.4 mn (Agence France-Presse)

PM Says Japan Must Tackle Debt to Avoid Rate Cut (The Associated Press)

Ohio's mysterious man-made earthquakes (CNNMoney)

Unofficial Problem Bank List and Quarterly Transition Matrix (Calculated Risk blog)

1912 View of the Federal Reserve Plan (Cliff Küle’s Notes blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (01-13-12)

2012-01-13T18:30:00.000-08:00

ECB Overnight Deposits Again Hit Record High (The Wall Street Journal)

S&P hammers euro zone politicians with downgrades (Reuters)

Greek bankruptcy threat looms as debt restructuring talks break down: Athens warns of dire consequences for Greece and rest of Europe if deal with private-sector creditors is not reached soon (The Guardian)

A Greek Default Would Hit the ECB Hard: Hopes that Greece can be saved are dwindling. Athens had hoped to reach a deal with its creditors on a 50 percent debt haircut, but banks have now made it clear that efforts to reach an agreement could fail. Should the country go bankrupt, the European Central Bank stands to lose the most. (Spiegel Online)

How Greek bond failure will hurt the U.S. economy (CBSMoneywatch)

France Loses Top Credit Rating: The French finance minister said Friday that Standard & Poor's had stripped the nation of its top-notch credit rating, again throwing Europe's ability to fight off its debt crisis into doubt. (The Associated Press)

S&P Cuts Ratings on France, Italy, Other European Countries (FoxBusiness) Humiliation of the French: After lecturing Britain on its finances, France is stripped of its gold-plated AAA credit rating (The Daily Mail) S&P's French Downgrade: German Austerity To Blame For Eurozone Crisis (Forbes)

Eurozone debt downgrades of France, Austria to impact bailout fund (Agence France-Presse)

S&P Cuts Italy Two Levels on Rise in Costs of Financing Debt (Bloomberg)

Fed’s Evans Says Jobless Rate May Rise (Bloomberg)

BofA mulling retreat if financial problems worsen: report (Reuters)

Ex-Goldmanite Nomi Prins Fears Return of 1930s Great Depression: Interview (Bloomberg)

Novartis to Cut 1,960 U.S. Jobs (The Wall Street Journal)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Some divertissements

2012-01-12T20:38:00.000-08:00

As created by your humble blogger. All clips are from the mystery-guest segment of the popular 1950s and 1960s panel show What's My Line?

What's My Line: Mistaken Identities (Youtube)

What's My Line: Dead Giveaways (Youtube)

Thursday roundup (01-12-12)

2012-01-12T20:28:00.000-08:00

Eurozone crisis: thanks to globalisation, we really are all in it together: New research by Goldman Sachs identifies Turkey and Russia as among the numerous developing nations most vulnerable to the eurozone downturn (The Guardian)

Greece Scrambles To Complete Debt Talks As Economy Tumbles (Dow Jones Newswires) Greek debt talks ‘running short’ on time (The Washington Post) Greek bond swap talks enter crucial phase: The Greek government was holding crucial talks with its private investors on Thursday to finally reach a deal on a bond swap that would reduce the country's debt load and is an integral part of its second bailout package. (The Associated Press)

German Economic Success 'On Shaky Ground': Strong growth was measured for Germany's economy in 2011, but slight contraction in the final quarter of the year has experts warning that recession could lie ahead. Troubled by the ongoing euro crisis, German editorialists on Thursday urge lawmakers to keep a deeper downturn at bay. (Der Spiegel)

East Europe Policy Makers Said to Meet on Credit Crunch Concerns (Bloomberg)

The Worst Economic Recovery Since The Great Depression (Forbes)

Fed’s image tarnished by newly released documents (The Washington Post)

RealtyTrac: Bank seizures of homes fell to four year low in 2011 due to process issues (Calculated Risk blog)

Jim Sinclair - 5 Major US Banks Could Fail From Derivatives (King World News)

MF Global May Not Be Able to Pay Clients Back: Trustee (Reuters)

Hungary to Cut 6,369 Public Sector Jobs to Meet Deficit Goal (Bloomberg)

RBS Cuts 4,800 Jobs as It Jettisons Equities, Mergers Units (Bloomberg)

Vestas cuts [about 2,335] jobs, reshuffles management (Marketwatch)

Ulster Bank and unions to meet over loss of 950 jobs (The Irish Times)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-12-12)

2012-01-12T16:38:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"The number of Americans filing initial claims for regular state unemployment benefits rose by 24,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday." (Marketwatch)

Jobless Claims in U.S. Rose More Than Forecast (Bloomberg)

Unemployment Benefit Applications Jump to 399,000 (The Associated Press)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (01-11-12)

2012-01-11T20:49:00.000-08:00

Global financial crisis threatens to drag the world back to the 1930s (The Daily Mail)

ECB must do more to avert 'cataclysmic' euro collapse: Fitch (Reuters) ECB Needs To Do More To Prevent Euro Collapse - Fitch (Dow Jones Newswires)

Eurozone waters down its tough fiscal rules plan: European countries will be allowed to ignore new fiscal rules in difficult economic times, according to a draft of the region's new treaty which appears to water down plans for a tough pact. (The Telegraph)

Debt Downgrades to Rise ‘Substantially’ in 2012, Moody’s Says (Bloomberg)

Greek bond swap falling short, governments may fill gap: sources (Reuters)

Italy Faces Austerity Exhaustion, Monti Warns (CNBC) Monti Warns of Italian Anti-EU Protests as He Meets With Merkel in Berlin (Bloomberg)

Italy and France Team Up against Germany: Germany has long insisted that austerity be the primary strategy used in confronting the ongoing euro-zone debt crisis. Italy has now joined France in demanding a more nuanced approach, with Prime Minister Monti presenting his ideas to Chancellor Merkel in Berlin on Wednesday. (Der Spiegel)

Rogoff Says Ireland Among European Nations at Risk of Default (Bloomberg)

UK economy likely to shrink amid euro crisis, says BCC: The Government must act now to repair the blow to business confidence dealt by the eurozone debt crisis, or risk an even greater setback for Britain's ailing economy, the British Chambers of Commerce warned. (The Telegraph)

Spain Adopts Austerity Measures as Economic Recession Looms (Bloomberg)

Spain May Need Back-Door Bailout for Region Rescue: Euro Credit (Bloomberg)

EU Steps Up Pressure on Hungary as Cabinet Seeks Aid Talks (Bloomberg)

German Economy Heads Downward: Fourth-Quarter Slump Spurs Worry Over Strength of Euro Zone's Engine (The Wall Street Journal)

China's collapse 'will bring economic crisis to climax in 2012': Leading City of London analyst [= Albert Edwards] says next 12 months will be one of 'pain and disappointment' if Chinese economy crashes (The Guardian)

Drags On [US] Economy 'More Serious' Than Thought: Lacker (CNBC)

Foreclosures and Bankruptcies Decline in 2011, But Problem Remains (McClatchy Newspapers)

Americans are eating less and less meat (The Washington Post blogs)

Delhaize America to cut 4900 jobs, close stores (Reuters)

MetLife Quits Mortgage Business, to Cut Most of 4,300 Workers (Bloomberg)

CEO: Archer Daniels Midland to cut 1,000 jobs (The Associated Press)

Little Chef to cut 600 jobs in 'aggressive' rebuilding strategy (The Guardian)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (01-10-12)

2012-01-10T19:04:00.000-08:00

Five Global Risks to Monitor in 2012 (Hussman Funds)

Europe Banks Resist Draghi Bid to Avoid Crunch by Hoarding Cash (Bloomberg)

Euro crisis puts continent's future in doubt, warns Fiat boss (The Guardian)

[Fitch Ratings] Agency predicts January downgrades for Europe (The Associated Press)

EU must recognize Italy's debt crisis efforts: Monti (Reuters)

Italy Is Biggest Risk to Euro, Says Fitch (The Wall Street Journal) [Fitch's head of global sovereign ratings] Riley Says There’s a ‘Significant Chance’ Italy Rating to Fall (Bloomberg)

Vital Signs: Elevated Italian Bond Yields (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Organized Crime Now 'Italy's No.1 Bank': Report (Reuters)

Bailed-out Portugal’s painful recession will worsen this year, central bank says (The Associated Press)

Hedge funds lock horns with IMF on Greek debt (Reuters) Greece Bank Run Shows No Sign Of Stopping: Deposit Outflows Continue In November (ZeroHedge blog)

Ireland 'must renegotiate debt deal or face default' (The Irish Independent)

German negative yields as harbinger of deflation (FT Alphaville blog)

Germany to Enter Recession on EU Debt Crisis, Deutsche Bank Says (Bloomberg)

UK banks left vulnerable by Bank of England and politicians: City analysts have criticised the Bank of England's handling of the Britain's banking sector and warned that Bank and Government policies have left major lenders vulnerable if the eurozone debt crisis spreads to the UK. (The Telegraph) Banks being made riskier and Brits poorer, warns UBS: The Bank of England’s refusal to contemplate new liquidity support programmes for Britain’s major banks has left them with “few or no backstops” if the eurozone debt crisis spreads to the UK, according to UBS. (The Telegraph)

Hungary, IMF Meet on Loan Conditions (The Wall Street Journal) Hungary: savers move cash to Austria (The Financial Times blogs) Hungary: The Greece of Eastern Europe (Reuters blogs) IMF to Impose Strictures on Hungary as it Faces Bankruptcy (Deutsche Presse-Agentur) "'They are clearly running out of time,' Lars Christensen, chief emerging-market analyst at Danske Bank A/S, said in a phone interview ..." (Bloomberg) Hungary Needs IMF Accord in First Half, Fitch’s Rawkins Says (Bloomberg)

Wall Street banks curb [US's] economic growth forecasts (Reuters)

Leading Indicators and the Risk of a Blindside Recession by John P. Hussman, Ph.D. (Hussman Funds)

Global Banking: What Should Be Done? (Seeking Alpha blog)

Bill Black: More Proof of Obama Policy of Covering Up for Elite Financial Criminals (Naked Capitalism blog)

U.S. Inquiry of MF Global Gains Speed (The New York Times blogs) The Neverending MF Global Story: Regulators Block The Truth (Forbes)

Americans Gorge on Credit Card Offers (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

Twinkies, Kodak, Bailouts, and the Free Market (The Heritage Foundation blogs)

Friendly’s closes 37 stores, axing about 740 jobs (The Associated Press)

Leicestershire County Council to axe another 500 jobs (The BBC)

Population: The Elephant in the Room; Peak Oil Implications on Population Growth; What Level of Human Population is Sustainable? (Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis blog)

Greeks and Italians Work Harder Than Americans (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (01-09-12)

2012-01-09T20:35:00.000-08:00

Soros says world economy facing "vicious" deflationary cycle (The Wall Street Journal)

Soros: European crisis more dangerous than 2008 (Reuters)

Greek Bailout in Peril: France, Germany Press Athens, Bondholders to Reduce Debt (The Wall Street Journal) Germany and France Warn Greece on Bailout Money (The New York Times) Merkel tells Greece to hasten debt deal [-- meets Sarkozy today and Lagarde tomorrow in Berlin] (Reuters)

[Irish] State needs further bailout, says bank expert [= Citigroup's chief economist Willem Buiter] (The Irish Times)

Spain faces 'unprecedented' deficit challenge (Agence France-Presse)

U.S. debt is now equal to economy (USAToday) Nation's debt passes grim milestone (MSNBC)

U.S. Consumer Credit Rises by Most in Decade (Bloomberg) Consumer credit surges by most since 2001 (Reuters)

As home prices fall, more borrowers walk away (MSNBC)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (01-08-12)

2012-01-08T17:46:00.000-08:00

Global Economy Could Endure Disaster For a Week (Reuters)

Stephen King: Hard times ... Prepare yourself for the worst, our [UK] debt is here to stay (The Independent)

UK finance sector to step up job cuts - survey (Reuters)

Greek Debt Writedown May Be as High as 60%, Financial Times Says (Bloomberg)

Forget inflation: Is deflation the real threat? (USAToday)

Unemployment Scars Likely to Last for Years (The Wall Street Journal)

Oil [production] will decline shortly after 2015, says former oil expert of International Energy Agency (The Oil Drum)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (01-07-12)

2012-01-07T18:20:00.000-08:00

IMF to Make ‘Substantial’ Cut in Global Economic Forecast, Blanchard Says (Bloomberg)

Euro-Zone Sentiment Darkens as Recession Fear Looms (The Wall Street Journal)

New eurozone fears as banks stash cash at record levels (This is Money)

Greece needs a bigger debt 'haircut'-German adviser (Reuters)

IMF losing confidence in Greece's ability to reform: report (Reuters) Inside the International Monetary Fund: CNBC's Steve Liesman discusses Europe's struggling economy and prospects for global growth, with Olivier Blanchard, IMF chief economist (CNBC)

Portugal business leader says uncertain over [his country's future within the] euro: report (Reuters)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 970 institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

PNC to lay off 600 in NC after RBC merger (WRAL)

How Many Stephen Colberts Are There? (The New York Times)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (01-06-12)

2012-01-06T18:15:00.000-08:00

West readies oil stocks release as Iran plans war games (Reuters)

Banks in Europe Park Record Deposits at ECB After Flood of Emergency Cash (Bloomberg) ECB emergency funding use drops, deposits huge (Reuters) Euro rates ease but record cash parked at ECB (Reuters)

Eurozone strains increase with grim new economic data: Italian bond rates and Spanish jobless numbers rise, while Belgium and four other countries face fines for size of deficits (The Guardian) Italy, France meet as eurozone under pressure again (Agence France-Presse)

IMF sees bigger Greek writedown for banks (Agence France-Presse)

Fitch downgrades Hungary’s credit rating to junk amid standoff over international bailout (The Associated Press)

Italy, Spain embark on tough funding test [next week] (Reuters)

This Chart Stirs Some Skepticism About the Jobs Numbers (The Wall Street Journal blogs) About those 42,200 New Courier Jobs (The Mess That Greenspan Made blog)

Illinois Becomes Moody's Lowest-Rated State After Downgrade (Bloomberg)

‘Wild Old Women’ Close San Francisco Bank Of America Branch (KCBS)

Fraud and folly: The untold story of General Electric’s subprime debacle (iWatch The Center for Public Integrity)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (01-05-12)

2012-01-05T20:58:00.000-08:00

Soros Says Euro-Area’s Failure Would Have a ’Catastrophic’ Global Impact (Bloomberg) Euro credit crisis can lead to a bigger crash than in 2008: George Soros (The Economic Times of India)

Right Now the Debt Crisis is European, But the Problem is Global (Comstock Partners)

Ominous signs point to a dangerous year ahead [in Europe] (The Irish Times)

European Banks Face More Pressure to Shed Government Debt (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

ECB aid averts funding crisis for Italy, Spain, Belgium (Bloomberg)

More big firms defaulting on loans, Bank of England warns: Bank of England reports first rise in defaults by larger firms for two years, and warns that eurozone crisis is likely to make all kinds of borrowing increasingly difficult (The Guardian)

Hungary faces crisis as traders fear bond debt default: Hungary was forced to cancel a bond swap auction amid an escalating financial and political crisis that investors fear could trigger another dangerous shockwave in Europe. (The Telegraph) Investors ponder Hungary default risk, contagion (Reuters) Hungary Fails to Raise Target Amount at Auction, Yields Soar (Bloomberg)

Why Spain Could Be a Bigger Headache Than Italy (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Whitney Says Banks May Cut 100,000 Workers in 2012: Tom Keene (Bloomberg)

Does austerity create social unrest? (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Corn Seed Shortage Sows Farm Belt Woes (The Wall Street Journal)

On Eve of $41 Billion MF Global Bankruptcy Filing, Jon Corzine Was Château Shopping in France (Vanity Fair)

WELCOME TO THE PARANORMAL: Bill Gross Warns Of Financial Market Implosion And The End Of Economic Life As We Know It (The Business Insider)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 01-05-12)

2012-01-05T15:27:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped to a seasonally adjusted 372,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's claims data was revised up to 387,000 from the previously reported 381,000." (Reuters)

''Claims are moving in the right direction,' said Aneta Markowska, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York. 'The labor market is pretty much treading water, buts it’s definitely not as far behind as last year.'" (Bloomberg)

"Greater attention is being paid to unemployment figures due to this year's presidential election, especially since no U.S. president since Franklin Delano Roosevelt has won a second term when unemployment on Election Day topped 7.2 percent." (The International Business Times)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (01-04-12)

2012-01-04T20:41:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"We are watching the greatest debt bubble in history about to deflate, and it won't be a pretty sight." -- Richard Russell, publisher, Dow Theory Letters (King World News)

European banks borrow from ECB – and then lodge the cash with the ECB again (The Journal.ie) Fresh credit crunch fears as banks park record €453bn cash with ECB (The Guardian)

Germany and France Eye the End of Triple-A Era (Reuters)

Papademos Warns Greeks Economic Collapse Looms [in March] Without Sacrifice (Bloomberg)

Greek, Italian cash heads for hills, or under pool (Reuters)

Spain Leads Rise in Sovereign Bond Risk on Bailout Speculation (Bloomberg)

Every Single Economic Indicator in Spain Looks Diastrous: 6 Graphs: Hampered by a remarkable collapse of private debt and struggling to sell its public debt on the market, Spain is in an economic free fall (The Atlantic)

Payday Loans: One In Seven Brits Using Credit To Pay Mortgage Or Rent (The Huffington Post blog)

MF Global Sold Assets to Goldman Before Collapse (Reuters)

Bank of America severing some small-business credit lines: Bank of America is demanding that some small-business customers pay off their credit line balances all at once instead of making monthly payments. (The Los Angeles Times)

Boeing to close Wichita plant with 2,160 jobs (The Associated Press)

Forecasting with Internet Search Data (The Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (01-03-12)

2012-01-03T18:40:00.000-08:00

Greece: we could exit euro in three months: New Greek government says creditors and lending troika must agree bailout terms within weeks otherwise 'we are out of the markets' (The Guardian) Athens says second bailout needed to avoid euro zone exit (The Irish Times) Greek Failure On Bailout Talks Means Euro Exit - Spokesman (Dow Jones Newswires)

Ireland faces austerity ‘for as long as anyone can look forward’ (The Journal.ie)

MF Global U.K. Staff May Not Get Bonuses Pledged Before Failure (Bloomberg)

For 2012, Signs Point to Tepid Consumer Spending [in the US] (The New York Times) U.S. consumer in the slow lane (Reuters)

Welfare Lines Overflow: Crowded Public-Assistance Centers Interrupt Services as Demand for Aid Grows (The Wall Street Journal)

Banque de France To Cut 2,500 Jobs Through Attrition By 2020 (Dow Jones Newswires)

Philly Schools Send Layoff Notices to 1,400 (The Associated Press)

Did Psychopaths Take Over Wall Street Asylum?: William D. Cohan (Bloomberg) Brian Basham: Beware corporate psychopaths – they are still occupying positions of power (The Independent)

Back Bill Black, 2012 (Capitalism Without Failure)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (01-02-12)

2012-01-02T19:59:00.000-08:00

Why We Are Uneasy About the Global Economy in 2012: Harold James -- "The New Year opens with greater nervousness in financial markets and among policy makers than at any time since the Great Depression." (Bloomberg)

Collapse of the eurozone 'will start this year' as countries pull out of the single currency, leading think tank warns (The Daily Mail) Eurozone collapse 'starts this year' says CEBR: Europe's single currency is almost certain to disintegrate within the next decade, a leading think tank has predicted, with Greece and Italy potentially abandoning the euro this year. (The Telegraph)

Germany, France Pursue Debt Crisis Solution As European Economy Worsens (Dow Jones Newswires)

2012 could be the year Germany lets the euro die: So we enter Year IV of the Long Slump, the cruellest yet though not the most acute. (The Telegraph)

Three big questions for the eurozone (The BBC)

European Central Bank increases bond purchases from minimal buys of previous weeks (The Associated Press)

Euro break-up is biggest threat to British firms (and the UK faces a double-dip recession) (The Daily Mail) Most finance chiefs expect recession this year (Scotsman)

George Osborne's back is to the wall as bond markets seek growth as well as cuts: It's hard to find much reason for optimism as we head into 2012, I'm afraid. (The Telegraph)

Irish Home Prices Likely To Fall More Amid Debt Crisis - Surveys (Dow Jones Newswires)

Spain Fin Min: 2011 Budget Deficit May Surpass 8% Of GDP (Dow Jones Newswires)

Unemployed Portuguese told to 'just emigrate': Portugal's prime minister has been criticised for suggesting that unemployed youth leave the country to find work. (AlJazeera)

[World's] Biggest Economies Face $7.6 Trillion Bond Tab [in 2012] as Rally May Fade (Bloomberg)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (01-01-12)

2012-01-01T17:57:00.000-08:00

Merkel: 2012 "more difficult than 2011" (Calculated Risk blog) Eurozone debt crisis: leaders warn of dangers facing economy in 2012: Eurozone leaders used their New Year's message to highlight the dangers facing Europe's economy in the coming 12 months. (The Telegraph) Crisis talk, austerity calls mark euro anniversary (Reuters) Economics in 2012: no gain, just pain as austerity brings misery to all: With the eurozone on the brink of a new recession, this will be the year when millions of people bear the brunt (The Guardian)

Euro Leaders Seek to Buy Time for Euro Rescue as Debt Sales Loom (Bloomberg)

Everyone Is Starting To Realize The Size Of Britain's Debt Crisis by Steve Keen (The Business Insider)

As chances for bank loans shrink, Britain's small firms struggle: In Britain, the credit squeeze has sent businesses scrambling for alternative financing and fostered lending that bypasses the big banks. (The Los Angeles Times)

Spike in debt problems recorded [among the Irish] (The Irish Times)

ECRI: 'If You Think This Is A Bad Economy [in the US], You Haven't Seen Anything Yet' (The Business Insider)

How to Prepare for the Coming Government Debt Crises (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

2011-12-31T20:16:00.000-08:00

Eurozone is closer to break-up, warns Standard Chartered's Peter Sands: The chief executive of Standard Chartered has warned that there is an increasing likelihood of a country falling out of the eurozone because of the inability of politicians to resolve the crisis. (The Telegraph)

Greek bank chief warns against quitting euro -- would "be a real nightmare at least for the first few years" (Agence France-Presse)

Italian president urges sacrifices to save economy -- " to prevent the financial collapse of Italy" (Agence France-Presse)

Credit card debt: Are consumers returning to bad habits?: Credit card debt increased an estimated $64 billion in 2011, far more than in the previous two years. Holiday shopping bills will swell credit card debt even more in early 2012. (The Christian Science Monitor)

Cities turn off their lights as budgets get slashed and revenues decline: "When you come through at night, it's scary; you have to wonder if anyone is lurking around waiting to catch you off your guard" (The New York Times)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (12-30-11)

2011-12-30T20:53:00.000-08:00

El-Erian: IMF Must Stand Up to 'European Bullying' (CNBC)

Europe's Dance Of Death (The Huffington Post blog) ICONOLOGY OF THE EARLY DEATH CARDS (Tarot.com)

Spain Misses Deficit Target, Sets Cuts: New Conservative Government Proposes Wide Range of Budget Cuts to Close Gap; Reverses Promise Not to Raise Taxes (The Wall Street Journal) Spain revises up 2011 budget deficit forecast to 8 percent of GDP; fresh austerity announced (The Associated Press) As Spain Acts to Cut Deficit, Regional Debts Add to Woe (The New York Times) Spain spells out new austerity measures (Agence France-Presse)

German MP Criticizes Greek Privatization Efforts, Patience Might End (The Dow Jones Newswires)

Germany May Speed Payments to Bailout Fund to Help on Ratings for Bonds (Bloomberg)

Merkel Says She’ll ’Do Everything’ to Save Euro (Bloomberg) 'Euro will be stable' claim is ridiculed: Germany's finance minister has been accused of groundless optimism after he claimed that Europe's leaders will have "banished the dangers" of the euro crisis within 12 months. (The Telegraph) [Allegria, amici ascoltatori!]

Huge blow for the High Street as shoe chain Barratts sheds 1,600 jobs after last minute rescue deal fails (The Daily Mail)

Why European loans could hurt U.S. taxpayers (CNN)

Fed seeks to curb risks (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Is there any deleveraging? (Cliff Küle's Notes blog)

Could Bank of America Survive a Deposit Run in 2012? (Forbes)

Nation's largest welfare state [= California] makes deep cuts (The Associated Press)

Recipe for Disaster: The Formula That Killed Wall Street (Wired)

Five Economic Trends to Watch in 2012 (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Insane Levels of Leverage by the Too Big to Fail Banks – Not Deadbeat Borrowers – Caused the Financial Crisis (Washington's Blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (12-29-11)

2011-12-29T18:40:00.000-08:00

European Sovereign Debt Is ‘Toxic,’ Pimco’s Crescenzi Says (Bloomberg)

Recession 'to return' to Europe, say economists (The BBC)

Eurozone credit crunch fears on M3 money contraction: Europe is at mounting risk of a fresh credit crunch after the eurozone money supply contracted for a second month in November and the volume of private loans began to shrink. (The Telegraph)

Banks Bunker Hundreds of Billions in Deposits at ECB: Just before Christmas, the European Central Bank flooded the financial markets with 500 billion euros -- a move that may not ultimately have the desired effect of stabilizing banks. Instead of passing that money on in loans to businesses to spur the economy, European banks have redeposited the money with the ECB at low interest rates. (Der Spiegel)

Angela Merkel's economic adviser Weder di Mauro refuses to rule out eurozone break-up: One of German Chancellor Angela's Merkel's economic advisers, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, has refused to rule out a break-up of the eurozone, in an interview published on Thursday. (The Telegraph)

Italian debt costs shoot back into danger zone: Despite a successful debt auction, Rome's 10-year borrowing costs rise above critical level (The Independent) Italy seeks bigger euro fund after tough debt sale (Reuters) Eurozone debt fears confirmed as Italy auctions off ten-year bonds at 'unsustainable' level (The Daily Mail) Italy calls for bigger euro fund after tough debt sale (Euronews)

Business Confidence Falls to Two-Year Low Amid Italian Austerity Measures (Bloomberg)

Fed Secretly Bailing Out Europe: A former Fed official says in the Wall Street Journal that the Federal Reserve is covertly bailing out Europe. Insight with Gerald O'Driscoll, Cato Institute senior fellow, who says the Fed operated a "temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap arrangement." (CNBC)

Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire Say Federal Budget Deficit Is No. 1 Issue (The Heritage Foundation blogs) What worries us most: Economic collapse (MSNBC)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 12-29-11)

2011-12-29T18:34:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment claims stood at 381,000 for the week that ended on Christmas Eve, an increase of 15,000 from the week before." (The Hill blogs)

Jobless Claims in U.S. Hit Three-Year Low [over the past month] (Bloomberg)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (12-28-11)

2011-12-28T21:40:00.000-08:00

Dithering at the Top Turned EU Crisis to Global Threat (The Wall Street Journal)

Three big risks the world faces in 2012: HSBC (The Financial Post)

Euro crisis blocks the path to full economic recovery: The year ahead looks gloomy, but quantative easing and inflation across Europe should prevent a full-blown depression. (The Telegraph) ["should"]

Europe's Banks Face Pressure on Collateral (The Wall Street Journal)

Lagarde rings a Euro alarm bell (The Business Spectator)

Liquidity Returns To Flood The ECB Basement (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

Bond sale puts Italy to the test: Italy faces a crucial test tomorrow as the technocrat government of Mario Monti launches its first big auction of long-term bonds since a disastrous upset a month ago. (The Telegraph) Italy short-term debt costs halve at auction (Reuters) A welcome reprieve for the eurozone – but only a reprieve: Alas, even now, the contradictions at the heart of the crisis remain unresolved (The Independent)

Greek retailers say Christmas sales worst in years amid acute financial crisis (The Associated Press)

Greek economic crisis turns tragic for children abandoned by their families: Nation shocked by stories of parents forced to give up children because of poverty – but charities warn of more cases to come (The Guardian)

1,000 metal thefts every week as growing 'menace' blights Britain: Metal theft has reached "epidemic" proportions in Britain with more than 1,000 offences taking place every week, according to official figures obtained by The Daily Telegraph. (The Telegraph)

Deflation Grip Returns in Japan as Production Declines: Economy (Bloomberg)

Europe's Besieged Banks Have Trillions In Claims Against US Banks (Forbes)

A Grim Forecast for [US] Corporate Earnings: With an unusually large percentage of companies revising their fourth-quarter estimates downward, prepare to see many results that miss the Street's current estimates. (Barron's)

Foreclosures Take Twice As Long To Process Now As They Did In 2007: Study -- "If the American housing market is ever to recover -- and provide some momentum to a broader economic turnaround -- it needs to work its way through the millions of foreclosed properties that have yet to be processed and auctioned off. But ..." (The Huffington Post blog)

Clouded Title: The Gross Illegality of MERS (The Big Picture blog) Stop payment! A homeowners' revolt against the banks (Harper's)

Less than a quarter of companies to hire in 2012: CareerBuilder (The Los Angeles Times blogs)

U.S. commodity markets shrink after MF Global failure (Reuters)

More than 700 Sparrows Point steel workers laid off until early March: Jobless workers can apply for unemployment insurance (The Baltimore Sun)

Hawaii Medical Center layoffs number 500 (Pacific Business News)

106-year-old stockbroker talks shop: Irving Kahn has been following the swings of the market since before the Great Depression...and he still does. (CNNMoney)

What Is Money and How Do You Destroy It? (The Wall Street Journal blogs)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Tuesday roundup (12-27-11)

2011-12-27T18:49:00.000-08:00

A Run On The Global Banking System—How Close Are We? (Gonzalo Lira blog)

LTRO "Bazooka" Is Epic Disaster As Banks Scramble To Redeposit "Free Carry" Cash With ECB, Lose Money On "Inverse Carry" (ZeroHedge blog) Nervous banks deposit record €412bn with ECB: High levels of distrust over lending point to liquidity freeze (The Guardian) ECB Overnight Deposits Reach Record After Three-Year Loans (Bloomberg)

The Federal Reserve's Covert Bailout of Europe: When is a loan between central banks not a loan? When it is a dollars-for-euros currency swap. (The Wall Street Journal)

[UK] Treasury plans for euro failure: The Government is considering plans to restrict the flow of money in and out of Britain to protect the economy in the event of a full-blown euro break-up. (The Telegraph)

Italian auction may prove obstacle for euro (Reuters)

Italians Cut Spending in Worst Christmas in 10 Years: Economy (Bloomberg)

Chinese banks under pressure to raise cash next year: source (Reuters)

Protesters Worldwide Demand An End to Crony Capitalism (Washington's Blog)

Obama administration to seek $1.2 trillion debt ceiling increase (CNN blogs) Debt-Ceiling Lift Could Trigger Fight Before Elections (National Journal)

Economists not hopeful about 2012 (The Myrtle Beach Sun News)

A country too big to fail (The Financial Post)

Home Prices In Major Cities Hit New Lows, Yanked Down By Foreclosures (Forbes) Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in October (seasonally adjusted) (Calculated Risk blog) U.S. Home Prices Fell More Than Forecast (Bloomberg) Home prices in largest U.S. cities fall in October from September: The S&P/Case-Shiller index shows home prices dropped in 19 of 20 cities in October, dashing hopes that the sluggish housing market was headed for an upturn. (The Los Angeles Times)

America becoming a nation of renters: Trend is helping to boost construction, and jobs, in struggling industry (Reuters)

A Detroit bankruptcy would be long, costly: Municipal experts fear that a Chapter 9 filing would be complex and difficult (The Detroit News)

Morgan Stanley May Eliminate 580 Jobs in New York City (Bloomberg)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Monday roundup (12-26-11)

2011-12-26T19:57:00.000-08:00

From 2011's Santa Claus Rally To 2012's Perfect Storm (Forbes)

UK faces bleak 2012 and risk of recession's return, warns thinktank: Britain's jobless rate to rise as Osborne's economic strategy fails to halt slide back into recession, says IPPR (The Guardian)

Italy’s uphill financial fight [editorial] (The Washington Post)

Spain's economy minister says year ended with contraction in economy (The Irish Times) Spain faces more pain before economy recovers, warns minister: Luis de Guindos, economy minister expects the economy to shrink in the final three months of 2011 and again in the first quarter of the new year (The Guardian)

BOJ Nov minutes: Some said Europe woes affecting Japan mkts (Reuters)

Japan hopes Europe will boost rescue mechanism - sources (Reuters)

Slowing Inflation [in the US] Cheers Fed: Falling Commodities, Easing Price Rises Give Central Bank Room to Spur Growth (The Wall Street Journal)

Falling home values mean budget crunches for cities (The Washington Post)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Sunday roundup (12-25-11)

2011-12-25T18:27:00.000-08:00

IMF's Lagarde warns global economy threatened (Reuters)

Noda’s ‘Urgent’ Task Is Tax Rise as Japan Debt Load Swells (Bloomberg)

[US's Jefferson County] Bankruptcy Filing Raises Doubts About a Bond Repayment Pledge (The New York Times)

The Banking Oligopoly (The Big Picture blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Saturday roundup (12-24-11)

2011-12-24T20:50:00.000-08:00

ECB's Visco hints at lower rates if economy worsens (Reuters)

S&P Report on Euro Zone Ratings Expected in Jan: Sources (Reuters)

Is the curtain falling on the eurozone?: The eurozone will be a different place from what it is today, even if EU leaders take the serious steps necessary to tackle the eurozone's debt problem. (The Christian Science Monitor)

Italian unions warn government over austerity plan (Agence France-Presse)

Japan Approves Record Budget Despite Debt Woes (The Wall Street Journal) Japan Budget’s Dependence on Bonds to Rise to Record Next Year (Bloomberg)

The Housing Bubble and the Big Lie (Mother Jones) NYTimes Takes on “The Big Lie” (The Big Picture blog)

The myth of renewable energy -- "The only genuinely sustainable energy scenario is one in which energy demands do not continue to escalate indefinitely." (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Friday roundup (12-23-11)

2011-12-23T19:26:00.000-08:00

Quote of the Day:

"America's crisis began with a level of financial sector debt of 120% of GDP. So [in Britain] we're talking about a level of debt that's four, possibly five times as high as the level that caused the catastrophe in the United States! ... We're talking Iceland type figures there and beyond, in some ways. ... You're talking a debt level of 600% of GDP [in the financial sector]! You're so dependent upon that debt level rising to keep the entire mechanics of leveraging up going forward and maintaining those astronomical house prices in London and the salaries that those guys are used to raking off on the top of debt. As soon as that turns from growth to decline, that's got to be the biggest financial downturn in this crisis. ... When it hits, it should hit incredibly quickly." -- Economist Steve Keen to commentator Max Keiser (Youtube)

Warning lights on Europe flash red: THE European financial crisis has worsened during the past three months and the warning lights are "flashing red", the European Systemic Risk Board has warned. (The Times of London)

ECB wall of cash pushes liquidity to all time high (Reuters) [That said, according to] Satyajit Das: Europe's problem is not one of liquidity but rather solvency (The Independent)

Bank Deposits at European Central Bank Reach High for Year (The Associated Press)

ECB's £489bn will 'buy valuable time' but is no eurozone debt bazooka: The European Central Bank's (ECB) unprecedented provision of a €489bn (£407.5bn) in cheap loans will "buy valuable time" for eurozone banks but has not improved their credit outlook, a director of Standard & Poor's (S&P) has warned. (The Telegraph)

ECB's Stark: IMF Cannot Be Used for Monetary Financing - Press (Reuters) Departing European Central Bank official says bond buys sealed sense eurozone on wrong track (The Associated Press)

Italian Consumer Confidence Declines to 16-Year Low: Economy (Bloomberg) Italy consumer morale plummets after austerity budget (Reuters)

Japan Budget’s Dependence on Debt Sales to Rise to Record Next Fiscal Year (Bloomberg)

New Home Sales Rose 1.6%, but 2011 Likely Worst [Year] Ever (The Associated Press)

Banking Crisis Will Spark Deflationary Spiral (Big Government)

UK authorities fight for MF Global's $700 million (CNNMoney)

Fed’s Once-Secret Data Compiled by Bloomberg Released to Public (Bloomberg)

Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 973 institutions (Calculated Risk blog)

Unprecedented Fraud, Toothless Watchdogs (The Big Picture blog) Special Report: The watchdogs that didn't bark (Reuters)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Thursday roundup (12-22-11)

2011-12-22T21:31:00.000-08:00

Quotes of the Day:

"This is really ground-breaking research. I've actually been looking at the Mayan code. It's 2012. And if you look at it, you find out that they were not astrologers. They were actually economists. And they were clearly predicting the end of Europe and not the end of the world. I mean, the symbols there, you can see! Greece is upside down, the Italian wheels come off, you just -- once you realize they were economists, it all becomes clear. So 2012 is the year we see Europe fall apart." -- John Mauldin, president of Millennium Wave Investments LLC (Bloomberg)

"Entering 2012, we are facing uncertainty on the grandest of scales. ... This loss of faith is reminiscent of the collapse in confidence in 2008, when the wheels came off the global economy. Back then, forecasters completely failed to grasp the gravity of the situation. The same may be true today." -- HSBC economists, led by Stephen King, in their latest quarterly report (Reuters)

Bank Official in Europe Says Outlook Is Darkening (The New York Times) [Bank of England Governor] King Says Debt Crisis Threatens to Hurt Europe’s Real Economy (Bloomberg)

ESRB's warns financial stresses have worsened (Reuters)

Bini Smaghi Says ECB Should Use QE If Deflation Danger Arises (Bloomberg)

The ECB's Backdoor Bailout: Wednesday's mammoth lending spree won't fix what ails the euro zone. (The Wall Street Journal)

Q&A: The ECB’s three-year loans (FT Alphaville)

Banks Retrench in Europe While Keeping Up Appearances (The New York Times) Gloomy Picture for Banks in Europe's Core (The Wall Street Journal)

Britain's banks "planning for collapse of eurozone" (The Daily Mirror)

French downgrade could be inching closer (Marketwatch)

Greece’s Creditors Said to Resist Pressure From IMF to Take On More Losses (Bloomberg)

Fleeing Greeks bank on new Australian gold rush: The debt crisis has sent desperate Greek graduates to the other side of the world to a place they see as a land of opportunity (The Guardian)

German Two-Year Note Yields at Almost Record Low on Debt Turmoil Concern -- "'I see a high risk of the debt crisis getting worse again,' said Niels From, chief analyst at Nordea Bank AB in Copenhagen." (Bloomberg)

Spain, Italy yields rise; hope of ECB relief wanes (Reuters)

Italy Gives Austerity Plan Final Go-Ahead (The Wall Street Journal)

Spanish banks use ECB cash to cover maturing debt - sources (Reuters)

Economists ponder effect of European banking crisis on U.S. (The Washington Post)

Pimco Forecasts U.S. Economy May Stagnate (Bloomberg)

U.S. housing prices will continue to fall, but at a slower rate (The Real Deal) More House Price Indexes show price declines in October (Calculated Risk blog)

U.S. 30-Year Mortgage Rates Fall to Record Low (Bloomberg)

Break up the banks: Feds must end ‘too big to fail’ by Charles Gasparino, a Fox Business Network senior correspondent (The New York Post)

The boy wonder of the MF Global nightmare (Fortune) Legality Of MF Global Asset Transfer Questioned (ZeroHedge blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Is it a recovery yet? (Weekly report, 12-22-11)

2011-12-22T21:30:00.000-08:00

A recovery would be indicated by weekly initial jobless claims holding below 500,000. (See this post.)

IT'S A RECOVERY! (And it has been a recovery for every week since the Nov. 25, 2009 report, with the exception of the Aug. 19, 2010 report.)

"First-time filings for claims fell 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 364,000 in the week ended Dec. 17." (Marketwatch)

Claims lowest since [April] '08 as job market improves (The Associated Press)

SEE LAST WEEK'S POST HERE.

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.

Wednesday roundup (12-21-11)

2011-12-21T21:49:00.000-08:00

Banks gorge on ECB loans (Reuters) ECB Lends Banks $645B, Exceeding Forecast (Bloomberg) European Banks Devour ECB Emergency Funds to Refinance Most Debt Due 2012 (Bloomberg)

Kyle Bass: Bearish On The European Banking System (Seeking Alpha blog)

Herr Draghi or Signor Draghi, and the ECB's Santa Rally (technical) (The Telegraph blogs)

The European Debt Crisis: A Beginner's Guide (The Huffington Post blog)

European Debt Crisis Explained (Ciovacco Capital Management)

Europeans migrate south as continent drifts deeper into crisis: Tens of thousands of Irish, Greek and Portuguese people leave in search of a new life as the eurozone's woes worsen (The Guardian)

Italian GDP Contracts as Nation Enters New Recession: Economy (Bloomberg)

Italian banks tap 116 billion euros of ECB loans -- "nearly a quarter of the total" (Reuters) Italy Banks Said to Use State-Backed Bonds for ECB Loans (Bloomberg)

French Banks Won't Be Able To Handle Inevitable Italian Restructuring (Forbes)

Doubts Arise in Euro's Birthplace: Netherlands' Support Weakens Amid Concern Over Bailouts (The Wall Street Journal)

Euro zone crisis could hurt U.S. states (Reuters)

U.S. Faces 2013 Fitch AAA Downgrade Unless Deficit Cuts Made (Bloomberg)

Austerity and the Modern Banker by Simon Johnson (Project Syndicate)

Home sales during housing bust worse than thought (CNNMoney) Housing Market Worse Off Than Estimated (The Associated Press)

Why This Crisis Will Be Worse Than 2008 by Chris Martenson (Seeking Alpha blog)

The aim of this blog is to show (mostly from reports in mainstream respected news sources) that there is reason to believe that both the United States and the global economies remain fragile in the wake of the financial crisis of 2008 and that a number of threats that exist today could, if they worsened, bring about economic depression -- not just a minor depression, but a depression worse than the Great Depression. This blog further attempts to show that the financial crisis of 2008 was largely a result of the devastating consequences of excessive risk taking and the absence of effective regulation of such behavior. Furthermore, this blog maintains that not only have the lessons that should have been learned from this experience not been learned, but that the risks to the economy, including the persistent building up of "too big to fail" institutions, have actually increased since the crisis began. Finally this blog also brings to light, from time to time, reports of a parallel threat to economic well-being developing in the energy industry, which suggest that an energy shock may be coming much closer in time than is generally imagined.